Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack

In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Walden, Johan, Kaplan, Edward H.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2004
Materias:
Perspective
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323319/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15324538
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1007.030632
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author Walden, Johan
Kaplan, Edward H.
author_facet Walden, Johan
Kaplan, Edward H.
author_sort Walden, Johan
collection PubMed
description In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated anthrax attack. The method is simple enough to be implemented in a spreadsheet.
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spelling pubmed-33233192012-04-17 Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack Walden, Johan Kaplan, Edward H. Emerg Infect Dis Perspective In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated anthrax attack. The method is simple enough to be implemented in a spreadsheet. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2004-07 /pmc/articles/PMC3323319/ /pubmed/15324538 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1007.030632 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is a publication of the U.S. Government. This publication is in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from this work may be reprinted freely. Use of these materials should be properly cited.
spellingShingle Perspective
Walden, Johan
Kaplan, Edward H.
Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack
title Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack
title_full Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack
title_fullStr Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack
title_full_unstemmed Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack
title_short Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack
title_sort estimating time and size of bioterror attack
topic Perspective
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323319/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15324538
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1007.030632
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