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Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty

We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (“small world”), all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (“large”) worlds, some of this information is unknown...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Volz, Kirsten G., Gigerenzer, Gerd
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Research Foundation 2012
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3395005/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22807893
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2012.00105
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author Volz, Kirsten G.
Gigerenzer, Gerd
author_facet Volz, Kirsten G.
Gigerenzer, Gerd
author_sort Volz, Kirsten G.
collection PubMed
description We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (“small world”), all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (“large”) worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries), with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift toward studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples.
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spelling pubmed-33950052012-07-17 Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty Volz, Kirsten G. Gigerenzer, Gerd Front Neurosci Neuroscience We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (“small world”), all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (“large”) worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries), with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift toward studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples. Frontiers Research Foundation 2012-07-12 /pmc/articles/PMC3395005/ /pubmed/22807893 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2012.00105 Text en Copyright © 2012 Volz and Gigerenzer. http://www.frontiersin.org/licenseagreement This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in other forums, provided the original authors and source are credited and subject to any copyright notices concerning any third-party graphics etc.
spellingShingle Neuroscience
Volz, Kirsten G.
Gigerenzer, Gerd
Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty
title Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty
title_full Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty
title_fullStr Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty
title_full_unstemmed Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty
title_short Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty
title_sort cognitive processes in decisions under risk are not the same as in decisions under uncertainty
topic Neuroscience
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3395005/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22807893
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2012.00105
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