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A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network
The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, ge...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2012
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3400590/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22829902 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0040961 |
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author | Nicolaides, Christos Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis González, Marta C. Juanes, Ruben |
author_facet | Nicolaides, Christos Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis González, Marta C. Juanes, Ruben |
author_sort | Nicolaides, Christos |
collection | PubMed |
description | The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading––the geographic spreading centrality––which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3400590 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2012 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-34005902012-07-24 A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network Nicolaides, Christos Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis González, Marta C. Juanes, Ruben PLoS One Research Article The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading––the geographic spreading centrality––which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes. Public Library of Science 2012-07-19 /pmc/articles/PMC3400590/ /pubmed/22829902 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0040961 Text en Nicolaides et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Nicolaides, Christos Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis González, Marta C. Juanes, Ruben A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network |
title | A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network |
title_full | A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network |
title_fullStr | A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network |
title_full_unstemmed | A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network |
title_short | A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network |
title_sort | metric of influential spreading during contagion dynamics through the air transportation network |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3400590/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22829902 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0040961 |
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