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A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network

The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, ge...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Nicolaides, Christos, Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis, González, Marta C., Juanes, Ruben
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2012
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3400590/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22829902
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0040961
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author Nicolaides, Christos
Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis
González, Marta C.
Juanes, Ruben
author_facet Nicolaides, Christos
Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis
González, Marta C.
Juanes, Ruben
author_sort Nicolaides, Christos
collection PubMed
description The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading––the geographic spreading centrality––which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.
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spelling pubmed-34005902012-07-24 A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network Nicolaides, Christos Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis González, Marta C. Juanes, Ruben PLoS One Research Article The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading––the geographic spreading centrality––which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes. Public Library of Science 2012-07-19 /pmc/articles/PMC3400590/ /pubmed/22829902 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0040961 Text en Nicolaides et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Nicolaides, Christos
Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis
González, Marta C.
Juanes, Ruben
A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network
title A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network
title_full A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network
title_fullStr A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network
title_full_unstemmed A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network
title_short A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network
title_sort metric of influential spreading during contagion dynamics through the air transportation network
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3400590/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22829902
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0040961
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