The Distribution of PSA Age-Specific Profiles in Healthy Irish Men between 20 and 70

Background. Ireland is estimated to have the highest European incidence rate of prostate cancer (Pca) in 2006 which will increase by 275% by 2025. This study aimed to determine PSA cutoff values in different age groups of healthy male patients without Pca. Methods. 660 men in a pilot men's health programme, aged 18–67, had PSA assayed. Men were grouped into 8 age groups at 5-year intervals: 30–34, 35–39, 40–44, 45–49, 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, and 64–70. Results. Linear regression demonstrates a PSA velocity of 0.024 ng/ml/year. The 95% confidence interval demonstrates a near flat line of PSA values from age 20 to 50 and rises after. When transformed logarithmically, PSA correlates highly with expected values from the normal distribution (0.98). A fractional polynomial quantile regression model was used to predict median and 95th percentile for PSA as follows: 30–34 (0.73, 1.57), 35–39 (0.71, 1.65), 40–44 (0.73, 1.85), 45–49 (0.78, 2.17), 50–54 (0.88, 2.63), 55–59 (1.01, 3.25), 60–64 (1.20, 4.02), and 64–70 (1.43, 4.96). Conclusions. PSA levels are similar to other racial groups but not as high as US Caucasians until 65 years. These data define the predicted PSA for the Irish population and provide a reference for future screening programmes.