Cargando…
Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics
BACKGROUND: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucida...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2012
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3420894/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22916274 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043528 |
_version_ | 1782240938385473536 |
---|---|
author | Stark, James H. Cummings, Derek A. T. Ermentrout, Bard Ostroff, Stephen Sharma, Ravi Stebbins, Samuel Burke, Donald S. Wisniewski, Stephen R. |
author_facet | Stark, James H. Cummings, Derek A. T. Ermentrout, Bard Ostroff, Stephen Sharma, Ravi Stebbins, Samuel Burke, Donald S. Wisniewski, Stephen R. |
author_sort | Stark, James H. |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3420894 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2012 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-34208942012-08-22 Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics Stark, James H. Cummings, Derek A. T. Ermentrout, Bard Ostroff, Stephen Sharma, Ravi Stebbins, Samuel Burke, Donald S. Wisniewski, Stephen R. PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. Public Library of Science 2012-08-16 /pmc/articles/PMC3420894/ /pubmed/22916274 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043528 Text en © 2012 Stark et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Stark, James H. Cummings, Derek A. T. Ermentrout, Bard Ostroff, Stephen Sharma, Ravi Stebbins, Samuel Burke, Donald S. Wisniewski, Stephen R. Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics |
title | Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics |
title_full | Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics |
title_fullStr | Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics |
title_full_unstemmed | Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics |
title_short | Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics |
title_sort | local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3420894/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22916274 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043528 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT starkjamesh localvariationsinspatialsynchronyofinfluenzaepidemics AT cummingsderekat localvariationsinspatialsynchronyofinfluenzaepidemics AT ermentroutbard localvariationsinspatialsynchronyofinfluenzaepidemics AT ostroffstephen localvariationsinspatialsynchronyofinfluenzaepidemics AT sharmaravi localvariationsinspatialsynchronyofinfluenzaepidemics AT stebbinssamuel localvariationsinspatialsynchronyofinfluenzaepidemics AT burkedonalds localvariationsinspatialsynchronyofinfluenzaepidemics AT wisniewskistephenr localvariationsinspatialsynchronyofinfluenzaepidemics |