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Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics

BACKGROUND: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucida...

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Autores principales: Stark, James H., Cummings, Derek A. T., Ermentrout, Bard, Ostroff, Stephen, Sharma, Ravi, Stebbins, Samuel, Burke, Donald S., Wisniewski, Stephen R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2012
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3420894/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22916274
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043528
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author Stark, James H.
Cummings, Derek A. T.
Ermentrout, Bard
Ostroff, Stephen
Sharma, Ravi
Stebbins, Samuel
Burke, Donald S.
Wisniewski, Stephen R.
author_facet Stark, James H.
Cummings, Derek A. T.
Ermentrout, Bard
Ostroff, Stephen
Sharma, Ravi
Stebbins, Samuel
Burke, Donald S.
Wisniewski, Stephen R.
author_sort Stark, James H.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales.
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spelling pubmed-34208942012-08-22 Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics Stark, James H. Cummings, Derek A. T. Ermentrout, Bard Ostroff, Stephen Sharma, Ravi Stebbins, Samuel Burke, Donald S. Wisniewski, Stephen R. PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. Public Library of Science 2012-08-16 /pmc/articles/PMC3420894/ /pubmed/22916274 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043528 Text en © 2012 Stark et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Stark, James H.
Cummings, Derek A. T.
Ermentrout, Bard
Ostroff, Stephen
Sharma, Ravi
Stebbins, Samuel
Burke, Donald S.
Wisniewski, Stephen R.
Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics
title Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics
title_full Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics
title_fullStr Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics
title_full_unstemmed Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics
title_short Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics
title_sort local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3420894/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22916274
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043528
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