Development of an economic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of hawthorn extract as an adjunct treatment for heart failure in Australia

OBJECTIVE: An economic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of hawthorn extract as an adjunctive treatment for heart failure in Australia. METHODS: A Markov model of chronic heart failure was developed to compare the costs and outcomes of standard treatment and standard treatment with hawthorn extract. Health states were defined by the New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification system and death. For any given cycle, patients could remain in the same NYHA class, experience an improvement or deterioration in NYHA class, be hospitalised or die. Model inputs were derived from the published medical literature, and the output was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) were conducted to establish the value of further research and the ideal target for such research. RESULTS: Hawthorn extract increased costs by $1866.78 and resulted in a gain of 0.02 QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $85 160.33 per QALY. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve indicated that at a threshold of $40 000 the new treatment had a 0.29 probability of being cost-effective. The average incremental net monetary benefit (NMB) was −$1791.64, the average NMB for the standard treatment was $92 067.49, and for hawthorn extract $90 275.84. Additional research is potentially cost-effective if research is not proposed to cost more than $325 million. Utilities form the most important target parameter group for further research. CONCLUSIONS: Hawthorn extract is not currently considered to be cost-effective in as an adjunctive treatment for heart failure in Australia. Further research in the area of utilities is warranted.