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Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe

BACKGROUND: Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nemato...

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Autores principales: Soliman, Tarek, Mourits, Monique C. M., van der Werf, Wopke, Hengeveld, Geerten M., Robinet, Christelle, Lansink, Alfons G. J. M. Oude
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2012
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3447758/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23029059
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045505
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author Soliman, Tarek
Mourits, Monique C. M.
van der Werf, Wopke
Hengeveld, Geerten M.
Robinet, Christelle
Lansink, Alfons G. J. M. Oude
author_facet Soliman, Tarek
Mourits, Monique C. M.
van der Werf, Wopke
Hengeveld, Geerten M.
Robinet, Christelle
Lansink, Alfons G. J. M. Oude
author_sort Soliman, Tarek
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Direct economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008–2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at €22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014–2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300–800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at €218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of €357 million, while producers experience a €139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Pinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusions.
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spelling pubmed-34477582012-10-01 Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe Soliman, Tarek Mourits, Monique C. M. van der Werf, Wopke Hengeveld, Geerten M. Robinet, Christelle Lansink, Alfons G. J. M. Oude PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Direct economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008–2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at €22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014–2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300–800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at €218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of €357 million, while producers experience a €139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Pinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusions. Public Library of Science 2012-09-20 /pmc/articles/PMC3447758/ /pubmed/23029059 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045505 Text en © 2012 Soliman et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Soliman, Tarek
Mourits, Monique C. M.
van der Werf, Wopke
Hengeveld, Geerten M.
Robinet, Christelle
Lansink, Alfons G. J. M. Oude
Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe
title Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe
title_full Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe
title_fullStr Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe
title_full_unstemmed Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe
title_short Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe
title_sort framework for modelling economic impacts of invasive species, applied to pine wood nematode in europe
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3447758/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23029059
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045505
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