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Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon

It is not known whether global warming will affect winning times in endurance events, and counterbalance improvements in race performances that have occurred over the past century. We examined a time series (1933–2004) from the Boston Marathon to test for an effect of warming on winning times by men...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Miller-Rushing, Abraham J., Primack, Richard B., Phillips, Nathan, Kaufmann, Robert K.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2012
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3458848/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23049738
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043579
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author Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.
Primack, Richard B.
Phillips, Nathan
Kaufmann, Robert K.
author_facet Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.
Primack, Richard B.
Phillips, Nathan
Kaufmann, Robert K.
author_sort Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.
collection PubMed
description It is not known whether global warming will affect winning times in endurance events, and counterbalance improvements in race performances that have occurred over the past century. We examined a time series (1933–2004) from the Boston Marathon to test for an effect of warming on winning times by men and women. We found that warmer temperatures and headwinds on the day of the race slow winning times. However, 1.6°C warming in annual temperatures in Boston between 1933 and 2004 did not consistently slow winning times because of high variability in temperatures on race day. Starting times for the race changed to earlier in the day beginning in 2006, making it difficult to anticipate effects of future warming on winning times. However, our models indicate that if race starting times had not changed and average race day temperatures had warmed by 0.058°C/yr, a high-end estimate, we would have had a 95% chance of detecting a consistent slowing of winning marathon times by 2100. If average race day temperatures had warmed by 0.028°C/yr, a mid-range estimate, we would have had a 64% chance of detecting a consistent slowing of winning times by 2100.
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spelling pubmed-34588482012-10-03 Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon Miller-Rushing, Abraham J. Primack, Richard B. Phillips, Nathan Kaufmann, Robert K. PLoS One Research Article It is not known whether global warming will affect winning times in endurance events, and counterbalance improvements in race performances that have occurred over the past century. We examined a time series (1933–2004) from the Boston Marathon to test for an effect of warming on winning times by men and women. We found that warmer temperatures and headwinds on the day of the race slow winning times. However, 1.6°C warming in annual temperatures in Boston between 1933 and 2004 did not consistently slow winning times because of high variability in temperatures on race day. Starting times for the race changed to earlier in the day beginning in 2006, making it difficult to anticipate effects of future warming on winning times. However, our models indicate that if race starting times had not changed and average race day temperatures had warmed by 0.058°C/yr, a high-end estimate, we would have had a 95% chance of detecting a consistent slowing of winning marathon times by 2100. If average race day temperatures had warmed by 0.028°C/yr, a mid-range estimate, we would have had a 64% chance of detecting a consistent slowing of winning times by 2100. Public Library of Science 2012-09-26 /pmc/articles/PMC3458848/ /pubmed/23049738 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043579 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration, which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose.
spellingShingle Research Article
Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.
Primack, Richard B.
Phillips, Nathan
Kaufmann, Robert K.
Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon
title Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon
title_full Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon
title_fullStr Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon
title_full_unstemmed Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon
title_short Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon
title_sort effects of warming temperatures on winning times in the boston marathon
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3458848/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23049738
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043579
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