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Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon
It is not known whether global warming will affect winning times in endurance events, and counterbalance improvements in race performances that have occurred over the past century. We examined a time series (1933–2004) from the Boston Marathon to test for an effect of warming on winning times by men...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2012
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3458848/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23049738 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043579 |
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author | Miller-Rushing, Abraham J. Primack, Richard B. Phillips, Nathan Kaufmann, Robert K. |
author_facet | Miller-Rushing, Abraham J. Primack, Richard B. Phillips, Nathan Kaufmann, Robert K. |
author_sort | Miller-Rushing, Abraham J. |
collection | PubMed |
description | It is not known whether global warming will affect winning times in endurance events, and counterbalance improvements in race performances that have occurred over the past century. We examined a time series (1933–2004) from the Boston Marathon to test for an effect of warming on winning times by men and women. We found that warmer temperatures and headwinds on the day of the race slow winning times. However, 1.6°C warming in annual temperatures in Boston between 1933 and 2004 did not consistently slow winning times because of high variability in temperatures on race day. Starting times for the race changed to earlier in the day beginning in 2006, making it difficult to anticipate effects of future warming on winning times. However, our models indicate that if race starting times had not changed and average race day temperatures had warmed by 0.058°C/yr, a high-end estimate, we would have had a 95% chance of detecting a consistent slowing of winning marathon times by 2100. If average race day temperatures had warmed by 0.028°C/yr, a mid-range estimate, we would have had a 64% chance of detecting a consistent slowing of winning times by 2100. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3458848 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2012 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-34588482012-10-03 Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon Miller-Rushing, Abraham J. Primack, Richard B. Phillips, Nathan Kaufmann, Robert K. PLoS One Research Article It is not known whether global warming will affect winning times in endurance events, and counterbalance improvements in race performances that have occurred over the past century. We examined a time series (1933–2004) from the Boston Marathon to test for an effect of warming on winning times by men and women. We found that warmer temperatures and headwinds on the day of the race slow winning times. However, 1.6°C warming in annual temperatures in Boston between 1933 and 2004 did not consistently slow winning times because of high variability in temperatures on race day. Starting times for the race changed to earlier in the day beginning in 2006, making it difficult to anticipate effects of future warming on winning times. However, our models indicate that if race starting times had not changed and average race day temperatures had warmed by 0.058°C/yr, a high-end estimate, we would have had a 95% chance of detecting a consistent slowing of winning marathon times by 2100. If average race day temperatures had warmed by 0.028°C/yr, a mid-range estimate, we would have had a 64% chance of detecting a consistent slowing of winning times by 2100. Public Library of Science 2012-09-26 /pmc/articles/PMC3458848/ /pubmed/23049738 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043579 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration, which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Miller-Rushing, Abraham J. Primack, Richard B. Phillips, Nathan Kaufmann, Robert K. Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon |
title | Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon |
title_full | Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon |
title_fullStr | Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon |
title_full_unstemmed | Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon |
title_short | Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon |
title_sort | effects of warming temperatures on winning times in the boston marathon |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3458848/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23049738 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043579 |
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