Can a One-Item Mood Scale Do the Trick? Predicting Relapse over 5.5-Years in Recurrent Depression

BACKGROUND: To examine whether a simple Visual Analogue Mood Scale (VAMS) is able to predict time to relapse over 5.5-years. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 187 remitted recurrently depressed out-patients were interviewed using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders (SCID-I) and the 17-item Hamilton Depression rating scale (HAM-D) to verify remission status (HAM-D <10). All patients rated their current mood with the help of a Visual Analogue Mood Scale (VAMS) at baseline and at a follow-up assessment three months later. Relapse over 5.5-years was assessed by the SCID-I. Cox regression revealed that both the VAMS at baseline and three months later significantly predicted time to relapse over 5.5-years. Baseline VAMS even predicted time to relapse when the number of previous depressive episodes and HAM-D scores were controlled for. The baseline VAMS explained 6.3% of variance in time to relapse, comparable to the HAM-D interview. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Sad mood after remission appears to play a pivotal role in the course of depression. Since a simple VAMS predicted time to relapse, the VAMS might be an easy and time-effective way to monitor mood and risk of early relapse, and offers possibilities for daily monitoring using e-mail and SMS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Register Identifier: ISRCTN68246470.