Climate Change Likely to Facilitate the Invasion of the Non-Native Hydroid, Cordylophora caspia, in the San Francisco Estuary

Climate change and invasive species can both have negative impacts on native species diversity. Additionally, climate change has the potential to favor invasive species over natives, dealing a double blow to native biodiversity. It is, therefore, vital to determine how changing climate conditions are directly linked to demographic rates and population growth of non-native species so we can quantitatively evaluate how invasive populations may be affected by changing conditions and, in turn, impact native species. Cordylophora caspia, a hydrozoan from the Ponto-Caspian region, has become established in the brackish water habitats of the San Francisco Estuary (SFE). We conducted laboratory experiments to study how temperature and salinity affect C. caspia population growth rates, in order to predict possible responses to climate change. C. Caspia population growth increased nonlinearly with temperature and leveled off at a maximum growth rate near the annual maximum temperature predicted under a conservative climate change scenario. Increasing salinity, however, did not influence growth rates. Our results indicate that C. caspia populations in the SFE will benefit from predicted regional warming trends and be little affected by changes in salinity. The population of C. caspia in the SFE has the potential to thrive under future climate conditions and may subsequently increase its negative impact on the food web.