Groundwater nitrate contamination: Factors and indicators

Identifying significant determinants of groundwater nitrate contamination is critical in order to define sensible agri-environmental indicators that support the design, enforcement, and monitoring of regulatory policies. We use data from approximately 1200 Austrian municipalities to provide a detailed statistical analysis of (1) the factors influencing groundwater nitrate contamination and (2) the predictive capacity of the Gross Nitrogen Balance, one of the most commonly used agri-environmental indicators. We find that the percentage of cropland in a given region correlates positively with nitrate concentration in groundwater. Additionally, environmental characteristics such as temperature and precipitation are important co-factors. Higher average temperatures result in lower nitrate contamination of groundwater, possibly due to increased evapotranspiration. Higher average precipitation dilutes nitrates in the soil, further reducing groundwater nitrate concentration. Finally, we assess whether the Gross Nitrogen Balance is a valid predictor of groundwater nitrate contamination. Our regression analysis reveals that the Gross Nitrogen Balance is a statistically significant predictor for nitrate contamination. We also show that its predictive power can be improved if we account for average regional precipitation. The Gross Nitrogen Balance predicts nitrate contamination in groundwater more precisely in regions with higher average precipitation.