Predicting Scholars' Scientific Impact

We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of [Image: see text] scientists. Our results show that i) among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii) future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately ([Image: see text] for a 1-year prediction, [Image: see text]) but iii) future citations of future work are hardly predictable.