Risk stratification of pT1-3N0 patients after radical cystectomy for adjuvant chemotherapy counselling

BACKGROUND: In pT1-T3N0 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) patients, multi-modal therapy is inconsistently recommended. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic tool to help decision-making regarding adjuvant therapy. METHODS: We included 2145 patients with pT1-3N0 UCB after radical cystectomy (RC), naive of neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy. The cohort was randomly split into development cohort based on the US patients (n=1067) and validation cohort based on the Europe patients (n=1078). Predictive accuracy was quantified using the concordance index. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 45 months, 5-year recurrence-free and cancer-specific survival estimates were 68% and 73%, respectively. pT-stage, ge, lymphovascular invasion, and positive margin were significantly associated with both disease recurrence and cancer-specific mortality (P-values⩽0.005). The accuracies of the multivariable models at 2, 5, and 7 years for predicting disease recurrence were 67.4%, 65%, and 64.4%, respectively. Accuracies at 2, 5, and 7 years for predicting cancer-specific mortality were 69.3%, 66.4%, and 65.5%, respectively. We developed competing-risk, conditional probability nomograms. External validation revealed minor overestimation. CONCLUSION: Despite RC, a significant number of patients with pT1-3N0 UCB experience disease recurrence and ultimately die of UCB. We developed and externally validated competing-risk, conditional probability post-RC nomograms for prediction of disease recurrence and cancer-specific mortality.