Short-Term and Long-Term Stroke Survival: The Belgrade Prognostic Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The aims of this study were to determine the 28-day and 1-year survival rates after first-ever ischemic stroke and to identify their baseline predictors. METHODS: We prospectively and consecutively collected data on 300 patients with first-ever acute ischemic stroke admitted to 2 major neurological institutions for cerebrovascular diseases in Belgrade during March 2008. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative 28-day and 1-year survival rates, and the predictive values of different variables were assessed by Cox proportional-hazards regression model. RESULTS: The cumulative 28-day and 1-year survival rates of ischemic stroke patients in the cohort were 81.0% and 78.3%, respectively. The multivariate predictive model revealed that hypertension (p=0.017), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (p=0.001), and in-hospital medical complications (p=0.029) were significant unfavorable independent outcome predictors, while early physical therapy (p=0.001) was a significant favorable prognostic factor for the 28-day mortality in our patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age (p=0.001), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (p=0.001), and in-hospital complications (p=0.008) remained significant predictors of 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support the need for optimal control of vascular risk factors and treatment of atherosclerotic disease as well as appropriate prevention and management of in-hospital complications of stroke.