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Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland
During 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV) presented as a novel disease of cattle and sheep that had apparently spread through northern Europe over a relatively short period of time, but has yet to infect Scotland. This paper describes the development of a model of SBV spread applied to Scotland in the e...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group
2013
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3560360/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23378911 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep01178 |
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author | Bessell, Paul R. Searle, Kate R. Auty, Harriet K. Handel, Ian G. Purse, Bethan V. Bronsvoort, B. Mark deC |
author_facet | Bessell, Paul R. Searle, Kate R. Auty, Harriet K. Handel, Ian G. Purse, Bethan V. Bronsvoort, B. Mark deC |
author_sort | Bessell, Paul R. |
collection | PubMed |
description | During 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV) presented as a novel disease of cattle and sheep that had apparently spread through northern Europe over a relatively short period of time, but has yet to infect Scotland. This paper describes the development of a model of SBV spread applied to Scotland in the event of an incursion. This model shows that SBV spread is very sensitive to the temperature, with relatively little spread and few reproductive losses predicted in years with average temperatures but extensive spread (>1 million animals infected) and substantial reproductive losses in the hottest years. These results indicate that it is possible for SBV to spread in Scotland, however spread is limited by climatic conditions and the timing of introduction. Further results show that the transmission kernel shape and extrinsic incubation period parameter have a non-linear effect on disease transmission, so a greater understanding of the SBV transmission parameters is required. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3560360 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-35603602013-02-01 Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland Bessell, Paul R. Searle, Kate R. Auty, Harriet K. Handel, Ian G. Purse, Bethan V. Bronsvoort, B. Mark deC Sci Rep Article During 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV) presented as a novel disease of cattle and sheep that had apparently spread through northern Europe over a relatively short period of time, but has yet to infect Scotland. This paper describes the development of a model of SBV spread applied to Scotland in the event of an incursion. This model shows that SBV spread is very sensitive to the temperature, with relatively little spread and few reproductive losses predicted in years with average temperatures but extensive spread (>1 million animals infected) and substantial reproductive losses in the hottest years. These results indicate that it is possible for SBV to spread in Scotland, however spread is limited by climatic conditions and the timing of introduction. Further results show that the transmission kernel shape and extrinsic incubation period parameter have a non-linear effect on disease transmission, so a greater understanding of the SBV transmission parameters is required. Nature Publishing Group 2013-01-31 /pmc/articles/PMC3560360/ /pubmed/23378911 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep01178 Text en Copyright © 2013, Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ |
spellingShingle | Article Bessell, Paul R. Searle, Kate R. Auty, Harriet K. Handel, Ian G. Purse, Bethan V. Bronsvoort, B. Mark deC Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland |
title | Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland |
title_full | Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland |
title_fullStr | Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland |
title_full_unstemmed | Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland |
title_short | Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland |
title_sort | epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: schmallenberg in scotland |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3560360/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23378911 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep01178 |
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