Prediction of early HBeAg seroconversion by decreased titers of HBeAg in the serum combined with increased grades of lobular inflammation in the liver

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion is an important hallmark in the natural course of chronic hepatitis B. This study was designed to predict early HBeAg seroconversion within 1 year, by not only biochemical and virological markers, but also pathological parameters in patients with chronic hepatitis B. MATERIAL/METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, 234 patients with HBeAg were reviewed for demographic, biochemical, virological and pathological data at the time of liver biopsy. Then, the patients who accomplished HBeAg seroconversion within 1 year thereafter were compared with those who did not, for sorting out factors predictive of early HBeAg seroconversion. RESULTS: Early HBeAg seroconversion occurred in 58 (24.8%) patients. In univariate analysis, factors predictive of early HBeAg seroconversion were: alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (p=0.002), IP-10 (p=0.029), HBsAg (p=0.003), HBeAg (p<0.001), HBV DNA (p=0.001), HBcrAg (p=0.001), core-promoter mutations (p=0.040), fibrosis (p=0.033) and lobular inflammation (p=0.002). In multivariate analysis, only serum HBeAg levels <100 Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI) U/ml and grades of lobular inflammation ≥2 were independent factors for early HBeAg seroconversion (odds ratio 8.430 [95% confidence interval 4.173–17.032], p<0.001; and 4.330 [2.009–9.331], p<0.001; respectively). CONCLUSIONS: HBeAg levels < 100 PEIU/ml combined with grades of lobular inflammation ≥2 are useful for predicting early HBeAg seroconversion. In patients without liver biopsies, high ALT levels (≥200 IU/L) can substitute for lobular inflammation (grades ≥2).