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Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning

Recent theories from complexity science argue that complex dynamics are ubiquitous in social and economic systems. These claims emerge from the analysis of individually simple agents whose collective behavior is surprisingly complicated. However, economists have argued that iterated reasoning–what y...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Frey, Seth, Goldstone, Robert L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3575333/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23441191
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0056416
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author Frey, Seth
Goldstone, Robert L.
author_facet Frey, Seth
Goldstone, Robert L.
author_sort Frey, Seth
collection PubMed
description Recent theories from complexity science argue that complex dynamics are ubiquitous in social and economic systems. These claims emerge from the analysis of individually simple agents whose collective behavior is surprisingly complicated. However, economists have argued that iterated reasoning–what you think I think you think–will suppress complex dynamics by stabilizing or accelerating convergence to Nash equilibrium. We report stable and efficient periodic behavior in human groups playing the Mod Game, a multi-player game similar to Rock-Paper-Scissors. The game rewards subjects for thinking exactly one step ahead of others in their group. Groups that play this game exhibit cycles that are inconsistent with any fixed-point solution concept. These cycles are driven by a “hopping” behavior that is consistent with other accounts of iterated reasoning: agents are constrained to about two steps of iterated reasoning and learn an additional one-half step with each session. If higher-order reasoning can be complicit in complex emergent dynamics, then cyclic and chaotic patterns may be endogenous features of real-world social and economic systems.
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spelling pubmed-35753332013-02-25 Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning Frey, Seth Goldstone, Robert L. PLoS One Research Article Recent theories from complexity science argue that complex dynamics are ubiquitous in social and economic systems. These claims emerge from the analysis of individually simple agents whose collective behavior is surprisingly complicated. However, economists have argued that iterated reasoning–what you think I think you think–will suppress complex dynamics by stabilizing or accelerating convergence to Nash equilibrium. We report stable and efficient periodic behavior in human groups playing the Mod Game, a multi-player game similar to Rock-Paper-Scissors. The game rewards subjects for thinking exactly one step ahead of others in their group. Groups that play this game exhibit cycles that are inconsistent with any fixed-point solution concept. These cycles are driven by a “hopping” behavior that is consistent with other accounts of iterated reasoning: agents are constrained to about two steps of iterated reasoning and learn an additional one-half step with each session. If higher-order reasoning can be complicit in complex emergent dynamics, then cyclic and chaotic patterns may be endogenous features of real-world social and economic systems. Public Library of Science 2013-02-18 /pmc/articles/PMC3575333/ /pubmed/23441191 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0056416 Text en © 2013 Frey, Goldstone http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Frey, Seth
Goldstone, Robert L.
Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning
title Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning
title_full Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning
title_fullStr Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning
title_full_unstemmed Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning
title_short Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning
title_sort cyclic game dynamics driven by iterated reasoning
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3575333/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23441191
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0056416
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