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Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge

BACKGROUND: In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. M...

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Autores principales: Paz, Shlomit, Malkinson, Dan, Green, Manfred S., Tsioni, Gil, Papa, Anna, Danis, Kostas, Sirbu, Anca, Ceianu, Cornelia, Katalin, Krisztalovics, Ferenczi, Emőke, Zeller, Herve, Semenza, Jan C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3576399/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23431374
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0056398
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author Paz, Shlomit
Malkinson, Dan
Green, Manfred S.
Tsioni, Gil
Papa, Anna
Danis, Kostas
Sirbu, Anca
Ceianu, Cornelia
Katalin, Krisztalovics
Ferenczi, Emőke
Zeller, Herve
Semenza, Jan C.
author_facet Paz, Shlomit
Malkinson, Dan
Green, Manfred S.
Tsioni, Gil
Papa, Anna
Danis, Kostas
Sirbu, Anca
Ceianu, Cornelia
Katalin, Krisztalovics
Ferenczi, Emőke
Zeller, Herve
Semenza, Jan C.
author_sort Paz, Shlomit
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. METHODS: Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks. RESULTS: For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern (“colder”) countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern (“warmer”) countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles.
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spelling pubmed-35763992013-02-21 Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge Paz, Shlomit Malkinson, Dan Green, Manfred S. Tsioni, Gil Papa, Anna Danis, Kostas Sirbu, Anca Ceianu, Cornelia Katalin, Krisztalovics Ferenczi, Emőke Zeller, Herve Semenza, Jan C. PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. METHODS: Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks. RESULTS: For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern (“colder”) countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern (“warmer”) countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles. Public Library of Science 2013-02-19 /pmc/articles/PMC3576399/ /pubmed/23431374 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0056398 Text en © 2013 Paz et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Paz, Shlomit
Malkinson, Dan
Green, Manfred S.
Tsioni, Gil
Papa, Anna
Danis, Kostas
Sirbu, Anca
Ceianu, Cornelia
Katalin, Krisztalovics
Ferenczi, Emőke
Zeller, Herve
Semenza, Jan C.
Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge
title Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge
title_full Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge
title_fullStr Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge
title_full_unstemmed Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge
title_short Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge
title_sort permissive summer temperatures of the 2010 european west nile fever upsurge
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3576399/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23431374
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0056398
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