Estimating the avoidable burden of certain modifiable risk factors in osteoporotic hip fracture using Generalized Impact Fraction (GIF) model in Iran

BACKGROUNDS: The number of hip fractures, the most common complication of osteoporosis, has increased rapidly over the past decades. The goal of this study is to estimate the avoidable burden of certain modifiable risk factor of the condition using the Generalized Impact Fraction (GIF) model, which has been suggested and used by epidemiologists to overcome the drawbacks associated with the use of Attributable Fraction index. In addition to preventing a risk factor or the avoidable fraction of burden, this index can also calculate the change in the burden, when a risk factor is altered. METHODS: International databases were searched through PubMed, CINAHLD, Embase using OVID and Google scholar. National resources were searched through IranDoc, IranMedex, SID and Journal sites. Other resources include abstract books and articles sent to the IOF congress. The following search strategy was used: (“Osteoporotic fracture” OR “Fragility Hip fracture” OR “Calcium” OR “vitamin D” OR “BMI” OR “lean body weight” OR “Physical activity” OR “exercise” OR “Smoke”) AND (“prevalence” OR “incidence” OR “relative risk”) and limited to “humans.” RESULTS: With regards to different scenarios already explained in modifying the studied risk factors, the greatest impact in reducing the prevalence of risk factors on osteoporotic hip fractures, was seen in low serum vitamin D levels, low physical activity and low intake of calcium and vitamin D, respectively. According to the fact that interventions for low serum vitamin D and low intake of calcium and vitamin D, are related to each other, it can be concluded that implementing interventions to change these two risk factors, in the easy, moderate and difficult scenarios, would result in approximately a 5%, 11% and 17% decrease in the burden of osteoporotic hip fractures, respectively. The addition of interventions addressing low physical activity in the easy, moderate and difficult scenarios, an 8%, 21% and 35% reduction in the burden of osteoporotic hip fractures would be reported, respectively. CONCLUSION: Improving serum vitamin D levels, recommending the consumption of calcium and vitamin D supplementations and advocating physical activity are the most effective interventions to reduce the risk of osteoporotic hip fractures. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2251-6581-12-10) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.