Twelve-year trends in the prevalence and risk factors of diabetes and prediabetes in Turkish adults

There is concern about an emerging diabetes epidemic in Turkey. We aimed to determine the prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, prediabetes and their 12-year trends and to identify risk factors for diabetes in the adult Turkish population. A cross-sectional, population-based survey, ‘TURDEP-II’ included 26,499 randomly sampled adults aged ≥ 20 years (response rate: 87 %). Fasting glucose and biochemical parameters were measured in all; then a OGTT was performed to identify diabetes and prediabetes in eligible participants. The prevalence of diabetes was 16.5 % (new 7.5 %), translating to 6.5 million adults with diabetes in Turkey. It was higher in women than men (p = 0.008). The age-standardized prevalence to the TURDEP-I population (performed in 1997–98) was 13.7 % (if same diagnostic definition was applied diabetes prevalence is calculated 11.4 %). The prevalence of isolated-IFG and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and combined prediabetes was 14.7, 7.9, and 8.2 %, respectively; and that of obesity 36 % and hypertension 31.4 %. Compared to TURDEP-I; the rate of increase for diabetes: 90 %, IGT: 106 %, obesity: 40 % and central obesity: 35 %, but hypertension decreased by 11 % during the last 12 years. In women age, waist, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, low education, and living environment; in men age, BMI, and hypertension were independently associated with an increased prevalence of diabetes. In women current smoking, and in men being single were associated with a reduced risk. These results from one of the largest nationally representative surveys carried out so far show that diabetes has rapidly become a major public health challenge in Turkey. The figures are alarming and underscore the urgent need for national programs to prevent diabetes, to manage the illness and thus prevent complications. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10654-013-9771-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.