Deaths Associated with Influenza Pandemic of 1918–19, Japan

Current estimates of deaths from the influenza pandemic of 1918–19 in Japan are based on vital records and range from 257,000 to 481,000. The resulting crude death rate range of 0.47%–0.88% is considerably lower than parallel and conservative worldwide estimates of 1.66%–2.77%. Because the accuracy of vital registration records for early 20th century Asia is questionable, to calculate the percentage of the population who died from the pandemic, we used alternative prefecture-level population count data for Japan in combination with estimation methods for panel data that were not available to earlier demographers. Our population loss estimates of 1.97–2.02 million are appreciably higher than the standing estimates, and they yield a crude rate of population loss of 3.62%–3.71%. This rate resolves a major puzzle about the pandemic by indicating that the experience of Japan was similar to that of other parts of Asia.