Regional Similarities in Seasonal Mortality across the United States: An Examination of 28 Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Human mortality exhibits a strong seasonal pattern with deaths in winter far exceeding those in the summer. While the pattern itself is clear, there have been very few studies examining whether the magnitude or timing of seasonal mortality varies considerably across space. Thus, the goal of this study is to conduct a comprehensive geographic analysis of seasonal mortality across the United States and to uncover systematic regional differences in such mortality. Unique seasonal mortality curves were created for 28 metropolitan statistical areas across the United States, and the amplitude and timing of mortality peaks were determined. The findings here indicate that the seasonality of mortality exhibits strong spatial variation with the largest seasonal mortality amplitudes found in the southwestern United States and the smallest in the North, along with South Florida. In addition, there were strong intra-regional similarities that exist among the examined cities, implying that environmental factors are more important than social factors in determining seasonal mortality response. This work begins to fill a large gap within the scientific literature concerning the geographic variation and underlying causes of seasonal mortality across the United States.