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Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States

BACKGROUND: High rates of bacterial coinfection in autopsy data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza (“flu”) pandemic suggest synergies between flu and pneumococcal disease (PD) during pandemic conditions, and highlight the importance of interventions like the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13...

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Autores principales: McGarry, Lisa J, Gilmore, Kristen E, Rubin, Jaime L, Klugman, Keith P, Strutton, David R, Weinstein, Milton C
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3668995/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23687999
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-13-229
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author McGarry, Lisa J
Gilmore, Kristen E
Rubin, Jaime L
Klugman, Keith P
Strutton, David R
Weinstein, Milton C
author_facet McGarry, Lisa J
Gilmore, Kristen E
Rubin, Jaime L
Klugman, Keith P
Strutton, David R
Weinstein, Milton C
author_sort McGarry, Lisa J
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: High rates of bacterial coinfection in autopsy data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza (“flu”) pandemic suggest synergies between flu and pneumococcal disease (PD) during pandemic conditions, and highlight the importance of interventions like the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. METHODS: We used a decision-analytic model, estimated from published sources, to assess the impact of pediatric vaccination with PCV13 versus the 7-valent vaccine (PCV7) on PD incidence and mortality in a normal flu season (10% flu incidence) and in a pandemic similar to 2009-2010 H1N1 (20% flu incidence, mild virulence, high impact in children). Both direct and indirect (herd) effects against PD were considered. Effectiveness of PCV13 was extrapolated from observed PCV7 data, using assumptions of serotype prevalence and PCV13 protection against the 6 serotypes not in PCV7. To simulate 2009–2010 H1N1, autopsy data were used to estimate the overall proportion of flu deaths with bacterial coinfections. By assuming that increased risk of death during the pandemic occurred among those with comorbidity (using obesity as proxy) and bacterial coinfections primarily due to S. pneumoniae or S. aureus, we estimated the proportion co-infected among all (fatal and non-fatal) flu cases (7.6% co-infected with any organism; 2.2% with S. pneumoniae). PD incidence, mortality, and total healthcare costs were evaluated over a 1-year horizon. RESULTS: In a normal flu season, compared to PCV7, PCV13 is expected to prevent an additional 13,400 invasive PD (IPD) cases, 399,000 pneumonia cases, and 2,900 deaths, leading to cost savings of $472 M. In a pandemic similar to 2009–2010 H1N1, PCV13 would prevent 22,800 IPD cases, 872,000 pneumonia cases, and 3,700 deaths, resulting in cost savings of $1.0 B compared to PCV7. CONCLUSIONS: In a flu pandemic similar to the 2009–2010 H1N1, protection against the 6 additional serotypes in PCV13 would likely be effective in preventing pandemic-related PD cases, mortality, and associated costs.
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spelling pubmed-36689952013-06-03 Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States McGarry, Lisa J Gilmore, Kristen E Rubin, Jaime L Klugman, Keith P Strutton, David R Weinstein, Milton C BMC Infect Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: High rates of bacterial coinfection in autopsy data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza (“flu”) pandemic suggest synergies between flu and pneumococcal disease (PD) during pandemic conditions, and highlight the importance of interventions like the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. METHODS: We used a decision-analytic model, estimated from published sources, to assess the impact of pediatric vaccination with PCV13 versus the 7-valent vaccine (PCV7) on PD incidence and mortality in a normal flu season (10% flu incidence) and in a pandemic similar to 2009-2010 H1N1 (20% flu incidence, mild virulence, high impact in children). Both direct and indirect (herd) effects against PD were considered. Effectiveness of PCV13 was extrapolated from observed PCV7 data, using assumptions of serotype prevalence and PCV13 protection against the 6 serotypes not in PCV7. To simulate 2009–2010 H1N1, autopsy data were used to estimate the overall proportion of flu deaths with bacterial coinfections. By assuming that increased risk of death during the pandemic occurred among those with comorbidity (using obesity as proxy) and bacterial coinfections primarily due to S. pneumoniae or S. aureus, we estimated the proportion co-infected among all (fatal and non-fatal) flu cases (7.6% co-infected with any organism; 2.2% with S. pneumoniae). PD incidence, mortality, and total healthcare costs were evaluated over a 1-year horizon. RESULTS: In a normal flu season, compared to PCV7, PCV13 is expected to prevent an additional 13,400 invasive PD (IPD) cases, 399,000 pneumonia cases, and 2,900 deaths, leading to cost savings of $472 M. In a pandemic similar to 2009–2010 H1N1, PCV13 would prevent 22,800 IPD cases, 872,000 pneumonia cases, and 3,700 deaths, resulting in cost savings of $1.0 B compared to PCV7. CONCLUSIONS: In a flu pandemic similar to the 2009–2010 H1N1, protection against the 6 additional serotypes in PCV13 would likely be effective in preventing pandemic-related PD cases, mortality, and associated costs. BioMed Central 2013-05-21 /pmc/articles/PMC3668995/ /pubmed/23687999 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-13-229 Text en Copyright © 2013 McGarry et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Article
McGarry, Lisa J
Gilmore, Kristen E
Rubin, Jaime L
Klugman, Keith P
Strutton, David R
Weinstein, Milton C
Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States
title Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States
title_full Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States
title_fullStr Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States
title_full_unstemmed Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States
title_short Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States
title_sort impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (pcv13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 h1n1 in the united states
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3668995/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23687999
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-13-229
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