Fasting Glucose Level and the Risk of Incident Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Diseases

OBJECTIVE: Although diabetes increases the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality, the dose-response relationship between fasting glucose levels below those diagnostic of diabetes with cardiovascular events has not been well characterized. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A prospective cohort study of more than one million Koreans was conducted with a mean follow-up of 16 years. A total of 1,197,384 Korean adults with no specific medical conditions diagnosed were classified by baseline fasting serum glucose level. Associations of fasting glucose level with CVD incidence and mortality, stroke incidence and mortality, and all-cause mortality were analyzed using multivariate proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The relationships between fasting glucose levels and CVD risks generally followed J-shape curves, with lowest risk in the glucose range of 85–99 mg/dL. As fasting glucose levels increased to >100 mg/dL, risks for CVD, ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, and thrombotic stroke progressively increased, but risk for hemorrhagic stroke did not. Fasting glucose levels <70 mg/dL were associated with increased risk of all stroke (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI 1.01–1.11) in men and (hazard ratio 1.11, 1.05–1.17) in women. CONCLUSIONS: Both low glucose level and impaired fasting glucose should be considered as predictors of risk for stroke and coronary heart disease. The fasting glucose level associated with the lowest cardiovascular risk may be in a narrow range.