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Surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: A case study of canine rabies

Surveillance is a critical component of disease control programmes but is often poorly resourced, particularly in developing countries lacking good infrastructure and especially for zoonoses which require combined veterinary and medical capacity and collaboration. Here we examine how successful cont...

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Autores principales: Townsend, Sunny E., Lembo, Tiziana, Cleaveland, Sarah, Meslin, François X., Miranda, Mary Elizabeth, Putra, Anak Agung Gde, Haydon, Daniel T., Hampson, Katie
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Science Ltd 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3693035/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23260376
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cimid.2012.10.008
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author Townsend, Sunny E.
Lembo, Tiziana
Cleaveland, Sarah
Meslin, François X.
Miranda, Mary Elizabeth
Putra, Anak Agung Gde
Haydon, Daniel T.
Hampson, Katie
author_facet Townsend, Sunny E.
Lembo, Tiziana
Cleaveland, Sarah
Meslin, François X.
Miranda, Mary Elizabeth
Putra, Anak Agung Gde
Haydon, Daniel T.
Hampson, Katie
author_sort Townsend, Sunny E.
collection PubMed
description Surveillance is a critical component of disease control programmes but is often poorly resourced, particularly in developing countries lacking good infrastructure and especially for zoonoses which require combined veterinary and medical capacity and collaboration. Here we examine how successful control, and ultimately disease elimination, depends on effective surveillance. We estimated that detection probabilities of <0.1 are broadly typical of rabies surveillance in endemic countries and areas without a history of rabies. Using outbreak simulation techniques we investigated how the probability of detection affects outbreak spread, and outcomes of response strategies such as time to control an outbreak, probability of elimination, and the certainty of declaring freedom from disease. Assuming realistically poor surveillance (probability of detection <0.1), we show that proactive mass dog vaccination is much more effective at controlling rabies and no more costly than campaigns that vaccinate in response to case detection. Control through proactive vaccination followed by 2 years of continuous monitoring and vaccination should be sufficient to guarantee elimination from an isolated area not subject to repeat introductions. We recommend that rabies control programmes ought to be able to maintain surveillance levels that detect at least 5% (and ideally 10%) of all cases to improve their prospects of eliminating rabies, and this can be achieved through greater intersectoral collaboration. Our approach illustrates how surveillance is critical for the control and elimination of diseases such as canine rabies and can provide minimum surveillance requirements and technical guidance for elimination programmes under a broad-range of circumstances.
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spelling pubmed-36930352013-06-26 Surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: A case study of canine rabies Townsend, Sunny E. Lembo, Tiziana Cleaveland, Sarah Meslin, François X. Miranda, Mary Elizabeth Putra, Anak Agung Gde Haydon, Daniel T. Hampson, Katie Comp Immunol Microbiol Infect Dis Article Surveillance is a critical component of disease control programmes but is often poorly resourced, particularly in developing countries lacking good infrastructure and especially for zoonoses which require combined veterinary and medical capacity and collaboration. Here we examine how successful control, and ultimately disease elimination, depends on effective surveillance. We estimated that detection probabilities of <0.1 are broadly typical of rabies surveillance in endemic countries and areas without a history of rabies. Using outbreak simulation techniques we investigated how the probability of detection affects outbreak spread, and outcomes of response strategies such as time to control an outbreak, probability of elimination, and the certainty of declaring freedom from disease. Assuming realistically poor surveillance (probability of detection <0.1), we show that proactive mass dog vaccination is much more effective at controlling rabies and no more costly than campaigns that vaccinate in response to case detection. Control through proactive vaccination followed by 2 years of continuous monitoring and vaccination should be sufficient to guarantee elimination from an isolated area not subject to repeat introductions. We recommend that rabies control programmes ought to be able to maintain surveillance levels that detect at least 5% (and ideally 10%) of all cases to improve their prospects of eliminating rabies, and this can be achieved through greater intersectoral collaboration. Our approach illustrates how surveillance is critical for the control and elimination of diseases such as canine rabies and can provide minimum surveillance requirements and technical guidance for elimination programmes under a broad-range of circumstances. Elsevier Science Ltd 2013-05 /pmc/articles/PMC3693035/ /pubmed/23260376 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cimid.2012.10.008 Text en © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Open Access under CC BY 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) license
spellingShingle Article
Townsend, Sunny E.
Lembo, Tiziana
Cleaveland, Sarah
Meslin, François X.
Miranda, Mary Elizabeth
Putra, Anak Agung Gde
Haydon, Daniel T.
Hampson, Katie
Surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: A case study of canine rabies
title Surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: A case study of canine rabies
title_full Surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: A case study of canine rabies
title_fullStr Surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: A case study of canine rabies
title_full_unstemmed Surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: A case study of canine rabies
title_short Surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: A case study of canine rabies
title_sort surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: a case study of canine rabies
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3693035/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23260376
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cimid.2012.10.008
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