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Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model
OBJECTIVE: To quantify the economic effects of a child conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF) in terms of net tax revenue from the state’s perspective in Greece. METHODS: Based on previous international experience, a mathematical model was developed to assess the lifetime productivity of a single...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Dove Medical Press
2013
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3694799/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23818800 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/CEOR.S44784 |
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author | Fragoulakis, Vassilis Maniadakis, Nikolaos |
author_facet | Fragoulakis, Vassilis Maniadakis, Nikolaos |
author_sort | Fragoulakis, Vassilis |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE: To quantify the economic effects of a child conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF) in terms of net tax revenue from the state’s perspective in Greece. METHODS: Based on previous international experience, a mathematical model was developed to assess the lifetime productivity of a single individual and his/her lifetime transactions with governmental agencies. The model distinguished among three periods in the economic life cycle of an individual: (1) early life, when the government primarily contributes resources through child tax credits, health care, and educational expenses; (2) employment, when individuals begin returning resources through taxes; and (3) retirement, when the government expends additional resources on pensions and health care. The cost of a live birth with IVF was based on the modification of a previously published model developed by the authors. All outcomes were discounted at a 3% discount rate. The data inputs – namely, the economic or demographic variables – were derived from the National Statistical Secretariat of Greece and other relevant sources. To deal with uncertainty, bias-corrected uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated based on 5000 Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, to examine the robustness of our results, other one-way sensitivity analyses were also employed. RESULTS: The cost of IVF per birth was estimated at €17,015 (95% UI: €13,932–€20,200). The average projected income generated by an individual throughout his/her productive life was €258,070 (95% UI: €185,376–€339,831). In addition, his/her life tax contribution was estimated at €133,947 (95% UI: €100,126–€177,375), while the discounted governmental expenses for elderly and underage individuals were €67,624 (95% UI: €55,211–€83,930). Hence, the net present value of IVF was €60,435 (95% UI: €33,651–€94,330), representing a 182% net return on investment. Results remained constant under various assumptions for the main model parameters. CONCLUSION: State-funded IVF may represent good value for money in the Greek setting, since it has positive tax benefits for the government, notwithstanding its beneficial psychological effect on infertile couples. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3694799 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | Dove Medical Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-36947992013-07-01 Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model Fragoulakis, Vassilis Maniadakis, Nikolaos Clinicoecon Outcomes Res Original Research OBJECTIVE: To quantify the economic effects of a child conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF) in terms of net tax revenue from the state’s perspective in Greece. METHODS: Based on previous international experience, a mathematical model was developed to assess the lifetime productivity of a single individual and his/her lifetime transactions with governmental agencies. The model distinguished among three periods in the economic life cycle of an individual: (1) early life, when the government primarily contributes resources through child tax credits, health care, and educational expenses; (2) employment, when individuals begin returning resources through taxes; and (3) retirement, when the government expends additional resources on pensions and health care. The cost of a live birth with IVF was based on the modification of a previously published model developed by the authors. All outcomes were discounted at a 3% discount rate. The data inputs – namely, the economic or demographic variables – were derived from the National Statistical Secretariat of Greece and other relevant sources. To deal with uncertainty, bias-corrected uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated based on 5000 Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, to examine the robustness of our results, other one-way sensitivity analyses were also employed. RESULTS: The cost of IVF per birth was estimated at €17,015 (95% UI: €13,932–€20,200). The average projected income generated by an individual throughout his/her productive life was €258,070 (95% UI: €185,376–€339,831). In addition, his/her life tax contribution was estimated at €133,947 (95% UI: €100,126–€177,375), while the discounted governmental expenses for elderly and underage individuals were €67,624 (95% UI: €55,211–€83,930). Hence, the net present value of IVF was €60,435 (95% UI: €33,651–€94,330), representing a 182% net return on investment. Results remained constant under various assumptions for the main model parameters. CONCLUSION: State-funded IVF may represent good value for money in the Greek setting, since it has positive tax benefits for the government, notwithstanding its beneficial psychological effect on infertile couples. Dove Medical Press 2013-06-20 /pmc/articles/PMC3694799/ /pubmed/23818800 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/CEOR.S44784 Text en © 2013 Fragoulakis and Maniadakis, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd This is an Open Access article which permits unrestricted noncommercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Research Fragoulakis, Vassilis Maniadakis, Nikolaos Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model |
title | Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model |
title_full | Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model |
title_fullStr | Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model |
title_short | Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model |
title_sort | estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3694799/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23818800 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/CEOR.S44784 |
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