Cargando…

The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change co...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Prisco, Irene, Carboni, Marta, Acosta, Alicia T. R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3706318/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23874787
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068850
_version_ 1782476535906697216
author Prisco, Irene
Carboni, Marta
Acosta, Alicia T. R.
author_facet Prisco, Irene
Carboni, Marta
Acosta, Alicia T. R.
author_sort Prisco, Irene
collection PubMed
description Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an “indirect” plant-species-based one and a simple “direct” one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the “direct” approach was unsatisfactory, “indirect” models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species’ responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats’ distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-3706318
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2013
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-37063182013-07-19 The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios Prisco, Irene Carboni, Marta Acosta, Alicia T. R. PLoS One Research Article Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an “indirect” plant-species-based one and a simple “direct” one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the “direct” approach was unsatisfactory, “indirect” models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species’ responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats’ distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future. Public Library of Science 2013-07-09 /pmc/articles/PMC3706318/ /pubmed/23874787 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068850 Text en © 2013 Prisco et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Prisco, Irene
Carboni, Marta
Acosta, Alicia T. R.
The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios
title The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios
title_full The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios
title_fullStr The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios
title_full_unstemmed The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios
title_short The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios
title_sort fate of threatened coastal dune habitats in italy under climate change scenarios
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3706318/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23874787
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068850
work_keys_str_mv AT priscoirene thefateofthreatenedcoastaldunehabitatsinitalyunderclimatechangescenarios
AT carbonimarta thefateofthreatenedcoastaldunehabitatsinitalyunderclimatechangescenarios
AT acostaaliciatr thefateofthreatenedcoastaldunehabitatsinitalyunderclimatechangescenarios
AT priscoirene fateofthreatenedcoastaldunehabitatsinitalyunderclimatechangescenarios
AT carbonimarta fateofthreatenedcoastaldunehabitatsinitalyunderclimatechangescenarios
AT acostaaliciatr fateofthreatenedcoastaldunehabitatsinitalyunderclimatechangescenarios