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The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios
Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change co...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2013
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3706318/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23874787 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068850 |
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author | Prisco, Irene Carboni, Marta Acosta, Alicia T. R. |
author_facet | Prisco, Irene Carboni, Marta Acosta, Alicia T. R. |
author_sort | Prisco, Irene |
collection | PubMed |
description | Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an “indirect” plant-species-based one and a simple “direct” one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the “direct” approach was unsatisfactory, “indirect” models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species’ responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats’ distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3706318 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-37063182013-07-19 The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios Prisco, Irene Carboni, Marta Acosta, Alicia T. R. PLoS One Research Article Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an “indirect” plant-species-based one and a simple “direct” one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the “direct” approach was unsatisfactory, “indirect” models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species’ responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats’ distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future. Public Library of Science 2013-07-09 /pmc/articles/PMC3706318/ /pubmed/23874787 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068850 Text en © 2013 Prisco et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Prisco, Irene Carboni, Marta Acosta, Alicia T. R. The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios |
title | The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios |
title_full | The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios |
title_fullStr | The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed | The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios |
title_short | The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios |
title_sort | fate of threatened coastal dune habitats in italy under climate change scenarios |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3706318/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23874787 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068850 |
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