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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam
An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2013
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3713821/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23735713 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1906.121323 |
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author | Cuong, Hoang Quoc Vu, Nguyen Thanh Cazelles, Bernard Boni, Maciej F. Thai, Khoa T.D. Rabaa, Maia A. Quang, Luong Chan Simmons, Cameron P. Huu, Tran Ngoc Anders, Katherine L. |
author_facet | Cuong, Hoang Quoc Vu, Nguyen Thanh Cazelles, Bernard Boni, Maciej F. Thai, Khoa T.D. Rabaa, Maia A. Quang, Luong Chan Simmons, Cameron P. Huu, Tran Ngoc Anders, Katherine L. |
author_sort | Cuong, Hoang Quoc |
collection | PubMed |
description | An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring rural provinces in Vietnam, we analyzed a 10-year monthly time series of dengue surveillance data from southern Vietnam. The per capita incidence of dengue was lower in Ho Chi Minh City than in most rural provinces; annual epidemics occurred 1–3 months later in Ho Chi Minh City than elsewhere. The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50–100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63% of variability in epidemic magnitude. These findings can aid the targeting of vector-control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3713821 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-37138212013-07-24 Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam Cuong, Hoang Quoc Vu, Nguyen Thanh Cazelles, Bernard Boni, Maciej F. Thai, Khoa T.D. Rabaa, Maia A. Quang, Luong Chan Simmons, Cameron P. Huu, Tran Ngoc Anders, Katherine L. Emerg Infect Dis Research An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring rural provinces in Vietnam, we analyzed a 10-year monthly time series of dengue surveillance data from southern Vietnam. The per capita incidence of dengue was lower in Ho Chi Minh City than in most rural provinces; annual epidemics occurred 1–3 months later in Ho Chi Minh City than elsewhere. The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50–100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63% of variability in epidemic magnitude. These findings can aid the targeting of vector-control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2013-06 /pmc/articles/PMC3713821/ /pubmed/23735713 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1906.121323 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is a publication of the U.S. Government. This publication is in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from this work may be reprinted freely. Use of these materials should be properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Cuong, Hoang Quoc Vu, Nguyen Thanh Cazelles, Bernard Boni, Maciej F. Thai, Khoa T.D. Rabaa, Maia A. Quang, Luong Chan Simmons, Cameron P. Huu, Tran Ngoc Anders, Katherine L. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam |
title | Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam |
title_full | Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam |
title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam |
title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam |
title_short | Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam |
title_sort | spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue epidemics, southern vietnam |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3713821/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23735713 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1906.121323 |
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