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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam

An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring...

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Autores principales: Cuong, Hoang Quoc, Vu, Nguyen Thanh, Cazelles, Bernard, Boni, Maciej F., Thai, Khoa T.D., Rabaa, Maia A., Quang, Luong Chan, Simmons, Cameron P., Huu, Tran Ngoc, Anders, Katherine L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3713821/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23735713
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1906.121323
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author Cuong, Hoang Quoc
Vu, Nguyen Thanh
Cazelles, Bernard
Boni, Maciej F.
Thai, Khoa T.D.
Rabaa, Maia A.
Quang, Luong Chan
Simmons, Cameron P.
Huu, Tran Ngoc
Anders, Katherine L.
author_facet Cuong, Hoang Quoc
Vu, Nguyen Thanh
Cazelles, Bernard
Boni, Maciej F.
Thai, Khoa T.D.
Rabaa, Maia A.
Quang, Luong Chan
Simmons, Cameron P.
Huu, Tran Ngoc
Anders, Katherine L.
author_sort Cuong, Hoang Quoc
collection PubMed
description An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring rural provinces in Vietnam, we analyzed a 10-year monthly time series of dengue surveillance data from southern Vietnam. The per capita incidence of dengue was lower in Ho Chi Minh City than in most rural provinces; annual epidemics occurred 1–3 months later in Ho Chi Minh City than elsewhere. The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50–100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63% of variability in epidemic magnitude. These findings can aid the targeting of vector-control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation.
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spelling pubmed-37138212013-07-24 Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam Cuong, Hoang Quoc Vu, Nguyen Thanh Cazelles, Bernard Boni, Maciej F. Thai, Khoa T.D. Rabaa, Maia A. Quang, Luong Chan Simmons, Cameron P. Huu, Tran Ngoc Anders, Katherine L. Emerg Infect Dis Research An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring rural provinces in Vietnam, we analyzed a 10-year monthly time series of dengue surveillance data from southern Vietnam. The per capita incidence of dengue was lower in Ho Chi Minh City than in most rural provinces; annual epidemics occurred 1–3 months later in Ho Chi Minh City than elsewhere. The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50–100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63% of variability in epidemic magnitude. These findings can aid the targeting of vector-control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2013-06 /pmc/articles/PMC3713821/ /pubmed/23735713 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1906.121323 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is a publication of the U.S. Government. This publication is in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from this work may be reprinted freely. Use of these materials should be properly cited.
spellingShingle Research
Cuong, Hoang Quoc
Vu, Nguyen Thanh
Cazelles, Bernard
Boni, Maciej F.
Thai, Khoa T.D.
Rabaa, Maia A.
Quang, Luong Chan
Simmons, Cameron P.
Huu, Tran Ngoc
Anders, Katherine L.
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam
title Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam
title_full Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam
title_fullStr Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam
title_full_unstemmed Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam
title_short Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam
title_sort spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue epidemics, southern vietnam
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3713821/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23735713
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1906.121323
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