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Are There Spatial and Temporal Correlations in the Incidence Distribution of Scrub Typhus in Korea?
OBJECTIVES: A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was applied to estimate the transmission pattern of scrub typhus from 2001 to 2011 in the Republic of Korea, based on spatial and temporal correlation. METHODS: Based on the descriptive statistics of scrub typhus incidence from 2001 to 2011...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2013
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3747676/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24159528 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.01.002 |
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author | Noh, Maengseok Lee, Youngjo Chu, Chaeshin Gwack, Jin Youn, Seung-Ki Huh, Sun |
author_facet | Noh, Maengseok Lee, Youngjo Chu, Chaeshin Gwack, Jin Youn, Seung-Ki Huh, Sun |
author_sort | Noh, Maengseok |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVES: A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was applied to estimate the transmission pattern of scrub typhus from 2001 to 2011 in the Republic of Korea, based on spatial and temporal correlation. METHODS: Based on the descriptive statistics of scrub typhus incidence from 2001 to 2011 reported to the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the spatial and temporal correlations were estimated by HGLM. Incidences according to age, sex, and year were also estimated by the best-fit model out of nine HGLMs. A disease map was drawn to view the annual regional spread of the disease. RESULTS: The total number of scrub typhus cases reported from 2001 to 2011 was 51,136: male, 18,628 (36.4%); female, 32,508 (63.6%). The best-fit model selected was a combination of the spatial model (Markov random-field model) and temporal model (first order autoregressive model) of scrub typhus transmission. The peak incidence was 28.80 per 100,000 persons in early October and the peak incidence was 40.17 per 100,000 persons in those aged 63.3 years old by the best-fit HGLM. The disease map showed the spread of disease from the southern central area to a nationwide area, excepting Gangwon-do (province), Gyeongsangbuk-do (province), and Seoul. CONCLUSION: In the transmission of scrub typhus in Korea, there was a correlation to the incidence of adjacent areas, as well as that of the previous year. According to the disease map, we are unlikely to see any decrease in the incidence in the near future, unless ongoing aggressive measures to prevent the exposure to the vector, chigger mites, in rural areas, are put into place. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3747676 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-37476762013-10-24 Are There Spatial and Temporal Correlations in the Incidence Distribution of Scrub Typhus in Korea? Noh, Maengseok Lee, Youngjo Chu, Chaeshin Gwack, Jin Youn, Seung-Ki Huh, Sun Osong Public Health Res Perspect Original Article OBJECTIVES: A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was applied to estimate the transmission pattern of scrub typhus from 2001 to 2011 in the Republic of Korea, based on spatial and temporal correlation. METHODS: Based on the descriptive statistics of scrub typhus incidence from 2001 to 2011 reported to the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the spatial and temporal correlations were estimated by HGLM. Incidences according to age, sex, and year were also estimated by the best-fit model out of nine HGLMs. A disease map was drawn to view the annual regional spread of the disease. RESULTS: The total number of scrub typhus cases reported from 2001 to 2011 was 51,136: male, 18,628 (36.4%); female, 32,508 (63.6%). The best-fit model selected was a combination of the spatial model (Markov random-field model) and temporal model (first order autoregressive model) of scrub typhus transmission. The peak incidence was 28.80 per 100,000 persons in early October and the peak incidence was 40.17 per 100,000 persons in those aged 63.3 years old by the best-fit HGLM. The disease map showed the spread of disease from the southern central area to a nationwide area, excepting Gangwon-do (province), Gyeongsangbuk-do (province), and Seoul. CONCLUSION: In the transmission of scrub typhus in Korea, there was a correlation to the incidence of adjacent areas, as well as that of the previous year. According to the disease map, we are unlikely to see any decrease in the incidence in the near future, unless ongoing aggressive measures to prevent the exposure to the vector, chigger mites, in rural areas, are put into place. Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2013-02 /pmc/articles/PMC3747676/ /pubmed/24159528 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.01.002 Text en Copyright ©2013, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Article Noh, Maengseok Lee, Youngjo Chu, Chaeshin Gwack, Jin Youn, Seung-Ki Huh, Sun Are There Spatial and Temporal Correlations in the Incidence Distribution of Scrub Typhus in Korea? |
title | Are There Spatial and Temporal Correlations in the Incidence Distribution of Scrub Typhus in Korea? |
title_full | Are There Spatial and Temporal Correlations in the Incidence Distribution of Scrub Typhus in Korea? |
title_fullStr | Are There Spatial and Temporal Correlations in the Incidence Distribution of Scrub Typhus in Korea? |
title_full_unstemmed | Are There Spatial and Temporal Correlations in the Incidence Distribution of Scrub Typhus in Korea? |
title_short | Are There Spatial and Temporal Correlations in the Incidence Distribution of Scrub Typhus in Korea? |
title_sort | are there spatial and temporal correlations in the incidence distribution of scrub typhus in korea? |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3747676/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24159528 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.01.002 |
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