Cargando…

Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics

Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying episodic outbreaks of infectious diseases is one of mathematical epidemiology’s major goals. Historic records are an invaluable source of information in this enterprise. Pertussis (whooping cough) is a re-emerging infection whose intermittent bouts...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Lavine, Jennie S., King, Aaron A., Andreasen, Viggo, Bjørnstad, Ottar N.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3753349/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23991047
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072086
_version_ 1782281820954427392
author Lavine, Jennie S.
King, Aaron A.
Andreasen, Viggo
Bjørnstad, Ottar N.
author_facet Lavine, Jennie S.
King, Aaron A.
Andreasen, Viggo
Bjørnstad, Ottar N.
author_sort Lavine, Jennie S.
collection PubMed
description Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying episodic outbreaks of infectious diseases is one of mathematical epidemiology’s major goals. Historic records are an invaluable source of information in this enterprise. Pertussis (whooping cough) is a re-emerging infection whose intermittent bouts of large multiannual epidemics interspersed between periods of smaller-amplitude cycles remain an enigma. It has been suggested that recent increases in pertussis incidence and shifts in the age-distribution of cases may be due to diminished natural immune boosting. Here we show that a model that incorporates this mechanism can account for a unique set of pre-vaccine-era data from Copenhagen. Under this model, immune boosting induces transient bursts of large amplitude outbreaks. In the face of mass vaccination, the boosting model predicts larger and more frequent outbreaks than do models with permanent or passively-waning immunity. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the mechanisms responsible for maintaining immune memory for pertussis epidemiology.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-3753349
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2013
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-37533492013-08-29 Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics Lavine, Jennie S. King, Aaron A. Andreasen, Viggo Bjørnstad, Ottar N. PLoS One Research Article Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying episodic outbreaks of infectious diseases is one of mathematical epidemiology’s major goals. Historic records are an invaluable source of information in this enterprise. Pertussis (whooping cough) is a re-emerging infection whose intermittent bouts of large multiannual epidemics interspersed between periods of smaller-amplitude cycles remain an enigma. It has been suggested that recent increases in pertussis incidence and shifts in the age-distribution of cases may be due to diminished natural immune boosting. Here we show that a model that incorporates this mechanism can account for a unique set of pre-vaccine-era data from Copenhagen. Under this model, immune boosting induces transient bursts of large amplitude outbreaks. In the face of mass vaccination, the boosting model predicts larger and more frequent outbreaks than do models with permanent or passively-waning immunity. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the mechanisms responsible for maintaining immune memory for pertussis epidemiology. Public Library of Science 2013-08-26 /pmc/articles/PMC3753349/ /pubmed/23991047 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072086 Text en © 2013 Lavine et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Lavine, Jennie S.
King, Aaron A.
Andreasen, Viggo
Bjørnstad, Ottar N.
Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics
title Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics
title_full Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics
title_fullStr Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics
title_short Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics
title_sort immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3753349/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23991047
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072086
work_keys_str_mv AT lavinejennies immuneboostingexplainsregimeshiftsinprevaccineerapertussisdynamics
AT kingaarona immuneboostingexplainsregimeshiftsinprevaccineerapertussisdynamics
AT andreasenviggo immuneboostingexplainsregimeshiftsinprevaccineerapertussisdynamics
AT bjørnstadottarn immuneboostingexplainsregimeshiftsinprevaccineerapertussisdynamics