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Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics
Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying episodic outbreaks of infectious diseases is one of mathematical epidemiology’s major goals. Historic records are an invaluable source of information in this enterprise. Pertussis (whooping cough) is a re-emerging infection whose intermittent bouts...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2013
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3753349/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23991047 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072086 |
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author | Lavine, Jennie S. King, Aaron A. Andreasen, Viggo Bjørnstad, Ottar N. |
author_facet | Lavine, Jennie S. King, Aaron A. Andreasen, Viggo Bjørnstad, Ottar N. |
author_sort | Lavine, Jennie S. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying episodic outbreaks of infectious diseases is one of mathematical epidemiology’s major goals. Historic records are an invaluable source of information in this enterprise. Pertussis (whooping cough) is a re-emerging infection whose intermittent bouts of large multiannual epidemics interspersed between periods of smaller-amplitude cycles remain an enigma. It has been suggested that recent increases in pertussis incidence and shifts in the age-distribution of cases may be due to diminished natural immune boosting. Here we show that a model that incorporates this mechanism can account for a unique set of pre-vaccine-era data from Copenhagen. Under this model, immune boosting induces transient bursts of large amplitude outbreaks. In the face of mass vaccination, the boosting model predicts larger and more frequent outbreaks than do models with permanent or passively-waning immunity. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the mechanisms responsible for maintaining immune memory for pertussis epidemiology. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3753349 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-37533492013-08-29 Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics Lavine, Jennie S. King, Aaron A. Andreasen, Viggo Bjørnstad, Ottar N. PLoS One Research Article Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying episodic outbreaks of infectious diseases is one of mathematical epidemiology’s major goals. Historic records are an invaluable source of information in this enterprise. Pertussis (whooping cough) is a re-emerging infection whose intermittent bouts of large multiannual epidemics interspersed between periods of smaller-amplitude cycles remain an enigma. It has been suggested that recent increases in pertussis incidence and shifts in the age-distribution of cases may be due to diminished natural immune boosting. Here we show that a model that incorporates this mechanism can account for a unique set of pre-vaccine-era data from Copenhagen. Under this model, immune boosting induces transient bursts of large amplitude outbreaks. In the face of mass vaccination, the boosting model predicts larger and more frequent outbreaks than do models with permanent or passively-waning immunity. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the mechanisms responsible for maintaining immune memory for pertussis epidemiology. Public Library of Science 2013-08-26 /pmc/articles/PMC3753349/ /pubmed/23991047 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072086 Text en © 2013 Lavine et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Lavine, Jennie S. King, Aaron A. Andreasen, Viggo Bjørnstad, Ottar N. Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics |
title | Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics |
title_full | Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics |
title_fullStr | Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed | Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics |
title_short | Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics |
title_sort | immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3753349/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23991047 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072086 |
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