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Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach
BACKGROUND: In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician suppl...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2013
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3765862/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23981198 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1478-4491-11-41 |
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author | Ishikawa, Tomoki Ohba, Hisateru Yokooka, Yuki Nakamura, Kozo Ogasawara, Katsuhiko |
author_facet | Ishikawa, Tomoki Ohba, Hisateru Yokooka, Yuki Nakamura, Kozo Ogasawara, Katsuhiko |
author_sort | Ishikawa, Tomoki |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians. METHOD: We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis. RESULT & CONCLUSION: As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008–2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3765862 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-37658622013-09-12 Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach Ishikawa, Tomoki Ohba, Hisateru Yokooka, Yuki Nakamura, Kozo Ogasawara, Katsuhiko Hum Resour Health Research BACKGROUND: In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians. METHOD: We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis. RESULT & CONCLUSION: As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008–2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians. BioMed Central 2013-08-27 /pmc/articles/PMC3765862/ /pubmed/23981198 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1478-4491-11-41 Text en Copyright © 2013 Ishikawa et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Ishikawa, Tomoki Ohba, Hisateru Yokooka, Yuki Nakamura, Kozo Ogasawara, Katsuhiko Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach |
title | Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach |
title_full | Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach |
title_fullStr | Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach |
title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach |
title_short | Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach |
title_sort | forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in japan using a system dynamics model approach |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3765862/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23981198 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1478-4491-11-41 |
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