Mathematical Modeling of Vibrio vulnificus Infection in Korea and the Influence of Global Warming

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the possible link between Vibrio vulnificus population size in seawater and water temperature. METHODS: We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans. RESULTS: We developed a mathematical model to connect V. vulnificus incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures. CONCLUSION: Increased V. vulnificus population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.