Cargando…

A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States

Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Woodall, Christopher W., Domke, Grant M., Riley, Karin L., Oswalt, Christopher M., Crocker, Susan J., Yohe, Gary W.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3769302/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24039889
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0073222
_version_ 1782283962628964352
author Woodall, Christopher W.
Domke, Grant M.
Riley, Karin L.
Oswalt, Christopher M.
Crocker, Susan J.
Yohe, Gary W.
author_facet Woodall, Christopher W.
Domke, Grant M.
Riley, Karin L.
Oswalt, Christopher M.
Crocker, Susan J.
Yohe, Gary W.
author_sort Woodall, Christopher W.
collection PubMed
description Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass) and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor) with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario). Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making) using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation) among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1) robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2) projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change), and 3) appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States). Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery) suggests an operational forest C risk matrix remains elusive.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-3769302
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2013
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-37693022013-09-13 A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States Woodall, Christopher W. Domke, Grant M. Riley, Karin L. Oswalt, Christopher M. Crocker, Susan J. Yohe, Gary W. PLoS One Research Article Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass) and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor) with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario). Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making) using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation) among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1) robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2) projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change), and 3) appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States). Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery) suggests an operational forest C risk matrix remains elusive. Public Library of Science 2013-09-10 /pmc/articles/PMC3769302/ /pubmed/24039889 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0073222 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration, which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose.
spellingShingle Research Article
Woodall, Christopher W.
Domke, Grant M.
Riley, Karin L.
Oswalt, Christopher M.
Crocker, Susan J.
Yohe, Gary W.
A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States
title A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States
title_full A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States
title_fullStr A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States
title_full_unstemmed A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States
title_short A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States
title_sort framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the united states
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3769302/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24039889
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0073222
work_keys_str_mv AT woodallchristopherw aframeworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT domkegrantm aframeworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT rileykarinl aframeworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT oswaltchristopherm aframeworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT crockersusanj aframeworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT yohegaryw aframeworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT woodallchristopherw frameworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT domkegrantm frameworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT rileykarinl frameworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT oswaltchristopherm frameworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT crockersusanj frameworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates
AT yohegaryw frameworkforassessingglobalchangeriskstoforestcarbonstocksintheunitedstates