Four-Year Incidence of Diabetic Retinopathy in a Spanish Cohort: The MADIABETES Study

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the incidence of diabetic retinopathy in patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, to identify the risk factors associated with the incidence of retinopathy and to develop a risk table to predict four-year retinopathy risk stratification for clinical use, from a four-year cohort study. DESIGN: The MADIABETES Study is a prospective cohort study of 3,443 outpatients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, sampled from 56 primary health care centers (131 general practitioners) in Madrid (Spain). RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of retinopathy at four-year follow-up was 8.07% (95% CI = 7.04–9.22) and the incidence density was 2.03 (95% CI = 1.75–2.33) cases per 1000 patient-months or 2.43 (95% CI = 2.10–2.80) cases per 100 patient-years. The highest adjusted hazard ratios of associated risk factors for incidence of diabetic retinopathy were LDL-C >190 mg/dl (HR = 7.91; 95% CI = 3.39–18.47), duration of diabetes longer than 22 years (HR = 2.00; 95% CI = 1.18–3.39), HbA1c>8% (HR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.30–2.77), and aspirin use (HR = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.22–2.24). Microalbuminuria (HR = 1.17; 95% CI = 0.75–1.82) and being female (HR = 1.12; 95% CI = 0.84–1.49) showed a non-significant increase of diabetic retinopathy. The greatest risk is observed in females who had diabetes for more than 22 years, with microalbuminuria, HbA1c>8%, hypertension, LDL-Cholesterol >190 mg/dl and aspirin use. CONCLUSIONS: After a four-year follow-up, the cumulative incidence of retinopathy was relatively low in comparison with other studies. Higher baseline HbA1c, aspirin use, higher LDL-Cholesterol levels, and longer duration of diabetes were the only statistically significant risk factors found for diabetic retinopathy incidence. This is the first study to demonstrate an association between aspirin use and diabetic retinopathy risk in a well-defined cohort of patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus at low risk of cardiovascular events. However, further studies with patients at high cardiovascular and metabolic risk are needed to clarify this issue.