Scale Determinants of Fiscal Investment in Geological Exploration: Evidence from China

With the continued growth in demand for mineral resources and China's efforts in increasing investment in geological prospecting, fiscal investment in geological exploration becomes a research hotspot. This paper examines the yearly relationship among fiscal investment in geological exploration of the current term, that of the last term and prices of mining rights over the period 1999–2009. Hines and Catephores' investment acceleration model is applied to describe the scale determinants of fiscal investment in geological exploration which are value-added of mining rights, value of mining rights and fiscal investment in the last term. The results indicate that when value-added of mining rights, value of mining rights or fiscal investment in the last term moves at 1 unit, fiscal investment in the current term will move 0.381, 1.094 or 0.907 units respectively. In order to determine the scale of fiscal investment in geological exploration for the current year, the Chinese government should take fiscal investment in geological exploration for the last year and the capital stock of the previous investments into account. In practice, combination of government fiscal investment in geological exploration with its performance evaluation can create a virtuous circle of capital management mechanism.