Cargando…
Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model
This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO(2) emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and sc...
Autores principales: | , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2013
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3812234/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24204922 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077699 |
_version_ | 1782288957813293056 |
---|---|
author | Chen, Liang Yang, Zhifeng Chen, Bin |
author_facet | Chen, Liang Yang, Zhifeng Chen, Bin |
author_sort | Chen, Liang |
collection | PubMed |
description | This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO(2) emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO(2) emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3812234 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-38122342013-11-07 Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model Chen, Liang Yang, Zhifeng Chen, Bin PLoS One Research Article This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO(2) emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO(2) emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. Public Library of Science 2013-10-29 /pmc/articles/PMC3812234/ /pubmed/24204922 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077699 Text en © 2013 Chen et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Chen, Liang Yang, Zhifeng Chen, Bin Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model |
title | Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model |
title_full | Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model |
title_fullStr | Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model |
title_full_unstemmed | Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model |
title_short | Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model |
title_sort | scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in china based on a modified ipat model |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3812234/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24204922 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077699 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT chenliang scenarioanalysisandpathselectionoflowcarbontransformationinchinabasedonamodifiedipatmodel AT yangzhifeng scenarioanalysisandpathselectionoflowcarbontransformationinchinabasedonamodifiedipatmodel AT chenbin scenarioanalysisandpathselectionoflowcarbontransformationinchinabasedonamodifiedipatmodel |