Risk of a Recurrent Cardiovascular Event in Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes or Intermediate Hyperglycemia: The Hoorn Study

OBJECTIVE: To investigate risk of a recurrent cardiovascular event and its predictors in a population-based cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants of the Hoorn Study who had experienced a first cardiovascular event after baseline (n = 336) were followed with respect to a recurrent event. Absolute risk of a recurrent event was calculated for individuals with normal glucose metabolism, intermediate hyperglycemia, and type 2 diabetes. Cox regression models were used to investigate which variables, measured before the first vascular event, predicted a recurrent event using the stepwise backward procedure. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.1 years, 44% (n = 148) of the population developed a recurrent vascular event. The rate of recurrent events per 100 person-years was 7.2 (95% CI 5.8–8.7) in individuals with normal glucose metabolism, compared with 9.8 (6.6–14.0) in individuals with intermediate hyperglycemia and 12.5 (8.5–17.6) in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Higher age (hazard ratio 1.02 [95% CI 1.00–1.04]), male sex (1.56 [1.08–2.25]), waist circumference (1.02 [1.02–1.03]), higher systolic blood pressure (1.01 [1.01–1.02]), higher HbA(1c) (%, 1.13 [0.97–1.31]/ mmol/mol, 1.01 [1.00–1.03]), and family history of myocardial infarction (1.38 [0.96–2.00]) predicted a recurrent cardiovascular event. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with type 2 diabetes, but not individuals with intermediate hyperglycemia, are at increased risk for a recurrent vascular event compared with individuals with normal glucose metabolism. In people with a history of cardiovascular disease, people at increased risk of a recurrent event can be identified based on the patient’s risk profile before the first event.