Diabetes Risk Factors, Diabetes Risk Algorithms, and the Prediction of Future Frailty: The Whitehall II Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether established diabetes risk factors and diabetes risk algorithms are associated with future frailty. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. Risk algorithms at baseline (1997–1999) were the Framingham Offspring, Cambridge, and Finnish diabetes risk scores. SETTING: Civil service departments in London, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: There were 2707 participants (72% men) aged 45 to 69 years at baseline assessment and free of diabetes. MEASUREMENTS: Risk factors (age, sex, family history of diabetes, body mass index, waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive and corticosteroid treatments, history of high blood glucose, smoking status, physical activity, consumption of fruits and vegetables, fasting glucose, HDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides) were used to construct the risk algorithms. Frailty, assessed during a resurvey in 2007–2009, was denoted by the presence of 3 or more of the following indicators: self-reported exhaustion, low physical activity, slow walking speed, low grip strength, and weight loss; “prefrailty” was defined as having 2 or fewer of these indicators. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 10.5 years, 2.8% of the sample was classified as frail and 37.5% as prefrail. Increased age, being female, stopping smoking, low physical activity, and not having a daily consumption of fruits and vegetables were each associated with frailty or prefrailty. The Cambridge and Finnish diabetes risk scores were associated with frailty/prefrailty with odds ratios per 1 SD increase (disadvantage) in score of 1.18 (95% confidence interval: 1.09–1.27) and 1.27 (1.17–1.37), respectively. CONCLUSION: Selected diabetes risk factors and risk scores are associated with subsequent frailty. Risk scores may have utility for frailty prediction in clinical practice.