Predicting the requirement for N-acetylcysteine in paracetamol poisoning from reported dose

CONTEXT: There is contention over whether reported dose correlates with toxicity in paracetamol poisoning and risk assessment is currently based on serum paracetamol concentration compared to a nomogram, irrespective of reported dose. OBJECTIVE: To determine if reported dose predicts the need for N-acetylcysteine (NAC). METHODS: Data were taken from paracetamol overdoses presenting to a tertiary toxicology service. Age, sex, reported dose, ingestion time, timed paracetamol concentrations between 4 and 16 h, hepatotoxicity (peak alanine transaminase > 1000 U/L) and treatment (single dose-activated charcoal [SDAC] and NAC) were analysed. Data were analysed within a repeated measures logistic regression framework using NONMEM (ver 7.2). The primary outcome was administration of NAC, which was determined based on a serum paracetamol concentration greater than the nomogram line. RESULT: There were 1571 admissions in 1303 patients, with a median age of 27 years (12–96 years) and 1140 (73%) were females. The median dose was 10 g (1–100 g). The paracetamol concentration was above the nomogram line in 337 of 1571 (22%) patients. Patients presenting later (first paracetamol concentration between 7 and 16 h post-overdose) compared to those presenting earlier (4–7 h post-overdose) were more likely to have hepatotoxicity (5.5% vs. 0.4%; p < 0.0001), have a toxic paracetamol concentration (34% vs. 18%; p < 0.0001) and receive NAC (48% vs. 23%; p < 0.0001). SDAC reduced the probability of the paracetamol concentration being above the nomogram. Based on SDAC not being administered there was a 5% probability of requiring NAC at a dose of 6–9 g, a 10% chance of requiring NAC at a dose of 13–16 g, a 50% chance of requiring NAC at a dose of 30–34 g and a 90% chance for needing NAC at 48–50 g. CONCLUSION: Reported dose was a good predictor of a toxic paracetamol concentration and SDAC reduced the probability of the concentration being above the nomogram. These predictions may assist in determining which patients could be started on NAC immediately.