Performance of Cockcroft-Gault, MDRD, and CKD-EPI in estimating prevalence of renal function and predicting survival in the oldest old

BACKGROUND: The question for prevalence estimation and validation of the various eGFRs in old age is still under debate. To assess renal function with increasing age, we estimated mean eGFR, in subjects aged 20–85 years. Furthermore, we assessed prevalence of eGFR in a population-based sample of 85 year olds and investigated the performance of these eGFRs in predicting mortality in the oldest old. METHODS: Renal function with increasing age was assessed in subjects aged 20–85 years from the Bronovo Study Cohort. We estimated prevalences of eGFRs and mortality risks in a population-based study of persons aged 85 years and older, the Leiden 85-plus Study. The GFRs were estimated by three different formulas. RESULTS: After the age of 70 years, the C-G tended to give relatively lower eGFRs. An eGFR < 60 was found in 90% of the subjects aged 85 years as calculated by C-G, in 55% of the subjects using MDRD and in 68% of the 85 year old subjects as calculated by CKD-EPI. When renal function was <30 ml/min/1.73 m(2), an increased mortality risk was observed by C-G (HR 1.9 (95% CI 1.1-3.3)), by MDRD (HR 3.5 (95% CI 1.8-6.7)), whereas by CKD-EPI significance was not reached (HR 2.4 (95% CI 0.9-6.4)). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that in subjects above age 70, C-G gives lower estimates of renal function when compared to MDRD and CKD-EPI. Furthermore, prevalence of renal dysfunction (CKD stage 1–3) at age 85 years was highest for C-G (90%), lowest for MDRD (55%), and 68% for CKD-EPI. Moreover, we found that in subjects aged 85 years MDRD predicted mortality best.