Cargando…
Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models
Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Flor...
Autores principales: | , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2013
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3836997/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24278368 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081025 |
_version_ | 1782292383889620992 |
---|---|
author | Banet, Amanda I. Trexler, Joel C. |
author_facet | Banet, Amanda I. Trexler, Joel C. |
author_sort | Banet, Amanda I. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3836997 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-38369972013-11-25 Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models Banet, Amanda I. Trexler, Joel C. PLoS One Research Article Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable. Public Library of Science 2013-11-21 /pmc/articles/PMC3836997/ /pubmed/24278368 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081025 Text en © 2013 Banet, Trexler http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Banet, Amanda I. Trexler, Joel C. Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models |
title | Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models |
title_full | Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models |
title_fullStr | Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models |
title_full_unstemmed | Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models |
title_short | Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models |
title_sort | space-for-time substitution works in everglades ecological forecasting models |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3836997/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24278368 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081025 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT banetamandai spacefortimesubstitutionworksinevergladesecologicalforecastingmodels AT trexlerjoelc spacefortimesubstitutionworksinevergladesecologicalforecastingmodels |