Cargando…

Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models()

As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age grou...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Alegana, Victor A., Atkinson, Peter M., Wright, Jim A., Kamwi, Richard, Uusiku, Petrina, Katokele, Stark, Snow, Robert W., Noor, Abdisalan M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3839406/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24238079
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2013.09.001
_version_ 1782478427532558336
author Alegana, Victor A.
Atkinson, Peter M.
Wright, Jim A.
Kamwi, Richard
Uusiku, Petrina
Katokele, Stark
Snow, Robert W.
Noor, Abdisalan M.
author_facet Alegana, Victor A.
Atkinson, Peter M.
Wright, Jim A.
Kamwi, Richard
Uusiku, Petrina
Katokele, Stark
Snow, Robert W.
Noor, Abdisalan M.
author_sort Alegana, Victor A.
collection PubMed
description As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age groups along with several environmental covariates. A Bayesian conditional-autoregressive model was used to model the spatial and temporal variation of incidence after adjusting for test positivity rates and health facility utilisation. Of the 144,744 malaria cases recorded in Namibia in 2009, 134,851 were suspected and 9893 were parasitologically confirmed. The mean annual incidence based on the Bayesian model predictions was 13 cases per 1000 population with the highest incidence predicted for constituencies bordering Angola and Zambia. The smoothed maps of incidence highlight trends in disease incidence. For Namibia, the 2009 maps provide a baseline for monitoring the targets of pre-elimination.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-3839406
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2013
publisher Elsevier
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-38394062013-12-01 Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models() Alegana, Victor A. Atkinson, Peter M. Wright, Jim A. Kamwi, Richard Uusiku, Petrina Katokele, Stark Snow, Robert W. Noor, Abdisalan M. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol Article As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age groups along with several environmental covariates. A Bayesian conditional-autoregressive model was used to model the spatial and temporal variation of incidence after adjusting for test positivity rates and health facility utilisation. Of the 144,744 malaria cases recorded in Namibia in 2009, 134,851 were suspected and 9893 were parasitologically confirmed. The mean annual incidence based on the Bayesian model predictions was 13 cases per 1000 population with the highest incidence predicted for constituencies bordering Angola and Zambia. The smoothed maps of incidence highlight trends in disease incidence. For Namibia, the 2009 maps provide a baseline for monitoring the targets of pre-elimination. Elsevier 2013-12 /pmc/articles/PMC3839406/ /pubmed/24238079 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2013.09.001 Text en © 2013 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Open Access under CC BY 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) license
spellingShingle Article
Alegana, Victor A.
Atkinson, Peter M.
Wright, Jim A.
Kamwi, Richard
Uusiku, Petrina
Katokele, Stark
Snow, Robert W.
Noor, Abdisalan M.
Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models()
title Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models()
title_full Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models()
title_fullStr Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models()
title_full_unstemmed Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models()
title_short Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models()
title_sort estimation of malaria incidence in northern namibia in 2009 using bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models()
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3839406/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24238079
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2013.09.001
work_keys_str_mv AT aleganavictora estimationofmalariaincidenceinnorthernnamibiain2009usingbayesianconditionalautoregressivespatialtemporalmodels
AT atkinsonpeterm estimationofmalariaincidenceinnorthernnamibiain2009usingbayesianconditionalautoregressivespatialtemporalmodels
AT wrightjima estimationofmalariaincidenceinnorthernnamibiain2009usingbayesianconditionalautoregressivespatialtemporalmodels
AT kamwirichard estimationofmalariaincidenceinnorthernnamibiain2009usingbayesianconditionalautoregressivespatialtemporalmodels
AT uusikupetrina estimationofmalariaincidenceinnorthernnamibiain2009usingbayesianconditionalautoregressivespatialtemporalmodels
AT katokelestark estimationofmalariaincidenceinnorthernnamibiain2009usingbayesianconditionalautoregressivespatialtemporalmodels
AT snowrobertw estimationofmalariaincidenceinnorthernnamibiain2009usingbayesianconditionalautoregressivespatialtemporalmodels
AT noorabdisalanm estimationofmalariaincidenceinnorthernnamibiain2009usingbayesianconditionalautoregressivespatialtemporalmodels