Dose-Response Relationship of Physical Activity to Premature and Total All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Walkers

PURPOSE: To assess the dose-response relationships between cause-specific mortality and exercise energy expenditure in a prospective epidemiological cohort of walkers. METHODS: The sample consisted of the 8,436 male and 33,586 female participants of the National Walkers' Health Study. Walking energy expenditure was calculated in metabolic equivalents (METs, 1 MET = 3.5 ml O(2)/kg/min), which were used to divide the cohort into four exercise categories: category 1 (≤1.07 MET-hours/d), category 2 (1.07 to 1.8 MET-hours/d), category 3 (1.8 to 3.6 MET-hours/d), and category 4 (≥3.6 MET-hours/d). Competing risk regression analyses were use to calculate the risk of mortality for categories 2, 3 and 4 relative to category 1. RESULTS: 22.9% of the subjects were in category 1, 16.1% in category 2, 33.3% in category 3, and 27.7% in category 4. There were 2,448 deaths during the 9.6 average years of follow-up. Total mortality was 11.2% lower in category 2 (P = 0.04), 32.4% lower in category 3 (P<10(−12)) and 32.9% lower in category 4 (P = 10(−11)) than in category 1. For underlying causes of death, the respective risk reductions for categories 2, 3 and 4 were 23.6% (P = 0.008), 35.2% (P<10(−5)), and 34.9% (P = 0.0001) for cardiovascular disease mortality; 27.8% (P = 0.18), 20.6% (P = 0.07), and 31.4% (P = 0.009) for ischemic heart disease mortality; and 39.4% (P = 0.18), 63.8% (P = 0.005), and 90.6% (P = 0.002) for diabetes mortality when compared to category 1. For all related mortality (i.e., underlying and contributing causes of death combined), the respective risk reductions for categories 2, 3 and 4 were 18.7% (P = 0.22), 42.5% (P = 0.001), and 57.5% (P = 0.0001) for heart failure; 9.4% (P = 0.56), 44.3% (P = 0.0004), and 33.5% (P = 0.02) for hypertensive diseases; 11.5% (P = 0.38), 41.0% (P<10(−4)), and 35.5% (P = 0.001) for dysrhythmias: and 23.2% (P = 0.13), 45.8% (P = 0.0002), and 41.1% (P = 0.005) for cerebrovascular diseases when compared to category 1. CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial health benefits to exceeding the current exercise guidelines.