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A Predictive Model for Knee Joint Replacement in Older Women
Knee replacement (KR) is expensive and invasive. To date no predictive algorithms have been developed to identify individuals at high risk of surgery. This study assessed whether patient self-reported risk factors predict 10-year KR in a population-based study of 1,462 women aged over 70 years recru...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2013
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3859639/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24349541 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083665 |
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author | Lewis, Joshua R. Dhaliwal, Satvinder S. Zhu, Kun Prince, Richard L. |
author_facet | Lewis, Joshua R. Dhaliwal, Satvinder S. Zhu, Kun Prince, Richard L. |
author_sort | Lewis, Joshua R. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Knee replacement (KR) is expensive and invasive. To date no predictive algorithms have been developed to identify individuals at high risk of surgery. This study assessed whether patient self-reported risk factors predict 10-year KR in a population-based study of 1,462 women aged over 70 years recruited for the Calcium Intake Fracture Outcome Study (CAIFOS). Complete hospital records of prevalent (1980-1998) and incident (1998-2008) total knee replacement were available via the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Potential risk factors were assessed for predicative ability using a modeling approach based on a pre-planned selection of risk factors prior to model evaluation. There were 129 (8.8%) participants that underwent KR over the 10 year period. Baseline factors including; body mass index, knee pain, previous knee replacement and analgesia use for joint pain were all associated with increased risk, (P < 0.001). These factors in addition to age demonstrated good discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.79 ± 0.02 as well as calibration determined by the Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit test. For clinical recommendations, three categories of risk for 10-year knee replacement were selected; low < 5%; moderate 5 to < 10% and high ≥ 10% predicted risk. The actual risk of knee replacement was; low 16 / 741 (2.2%); moderate 32 / 330 (9.7%) and high 81 / 391 (20.7%), P < 0.001. Internal validation of this 5-variable model on 6-year knee replacements yielded a similar C-statistic of 0.81 ± 0.02, comparable to the WOMAC weighted score; C-statistic 0.75 ± 0.03, P = 0.064. In conclusion 5 easily obtained patient self-reported risk factors predict 10-year KR risk well in this population. This algorithm should be considered as the basis for a patient-based risk calculator to assist in the development of treatment regimens to reduce the necessity for surgery in high risk groups such as the elderly. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3859639 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-38596392013-12-13 A Predictive Model for Knee Joint Replacement in Older Women Lewis, Joshua R. Dhaliwal, Satvinder S. Zhu, Kun Prince, Richard L. PLoS One Research Article Knee replacement (KR) is expensive and invasive. To date no predictive algorithms have been developed to identify individuals at high risk of surgery. This study assessed whether patient self-reported risk factors predict 10-year KR in a population-based study of 1,462 women aged over 70 years recruited for the Calcium Intake Fracture Outcome Study (CAIFOS). Complete hospital records of prevalent (1980-1998) and incident (1998-2008) total knee replacement were available via the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Potential risk factors were assessed for predicative ability using a modeling approach based on a pre-planned selection of risk factors prior to model evaluation. There were 129 (8.8%) participants that underwent KR over the 10 year period. Baseline factors including; body mass index, knee pain, previous knee replacement and analgesia use for joint pain were all associated with increased risk, (P < 0.001). These factors in addition to age demonstrated good discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.79 ± 0.02 as well as calibration determined by the Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit test. For clinical recommendations, three categories of risk for 10-year knee replacement were selected; low < 5%; moderate 5 to < 10% and high ≥ 10% predicted risk. The actual risk of knee replacement was; low 16 / 741 (2.2%); moderate 32 / 330 (9.7%) and high 81 / 391 (20.7%), P < 0.001. Internal validation of this 5-variable model on 6-year knee replacements yielded a similar C-statistic of 0.81 ± 0.02, comparable to the WOMAC weighted score; C-statistic 0.75 ± 0.03, P = 0.064. In conclusion 5 easily obtained patient self-reported risk factors predict 10-year KR risk well in this population. This algorithm should be considered as the basis for a patient-based risk calculator to assist in the development of treatment regimens to reduce the necessity for surgery in high risk groups such as the elderly. Public Library of Science 2013-12-11 /pmc/articles/PMC3859639/ /pubmed/24349541 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083665 Text en © 2013 Lewis et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Lewis, Joshua R. Dhaliwal, Satvinder S. Zhu, Kun Prince, Richard L. A Predictive Model for Knee Joint Replacement in Older Women |
title | A Predictive Model for Knee Joint Replacement in Older Women |
title_full | A Predictive Model for Knee Joint Replacement in Older Women |
title_fullStr | A Predictive Model for Knee Joint Replacement in Older Women |
title_full_unstemmed | A Predictive Model for Knee Joint Replacement in Older Women |
title_short | A Predictive Model for Knee Joint Replacement in Older Women |
title_sort | predictive model for knee joint replacement in older women |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3859639/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24349541 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083665 |
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