Quantification of Survival Gain From Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy: Nonlinear Growth With Time, and Greater Gain in Low-Risk Patients, Make Raw Trial Data an Underestimate of Real-World Behavior

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to examine the impact of calculation-window duration on lifespan gain (as observed in trials) and on who gains most. BACKGROUND: The landmark trials of biventricular pacing (cardiac resynchronization therapy [CRT]) typically ran for <1 device battery life, and they may therefore underestimate lifespan benefit over longer durations. METHODS: We conducted a meta-analysis of biventricular pacing trials to calculate lifespan gained: first, within the duration of randomized controlled trial data up to 2 years; second, over a 5-year typical battery life; and third, over >1 battery life. Importantly, we applied the Gompertz method for age-related increase in mortality from non–CRT-preventable causes. RESULTS: Five landmark trials (COMPANION [Comparison of Medical Therapy, Pacing, and Defibrillation in Heart Failure], CARE-HF (CArdiac REsynchronization–Heart Failure), MADIT-CRT [Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial With Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy], REVERSE [Resynchronization Reverses Remodeling in Systolic Left Ventricular Dysfunction], RAFT (Resynchronization–Defibrillation for Ambulatory Heart Failure)) provided data for 2 years (6,561 patients), with an average hazard ratio of 0.71. Lifespan gained across all trials increased nonlinearly with time from 0.1 month at 1 year, to 0.5 month at 2 years, and a projected 6.5 months at 5 years (65 times more than at 1 year). After multiple devices, it reached 14 months, involving on average 1.6 devices (i.e., 8.8 months per device implanted). Moreover, while over a short window (e.g., 2 years), lower-mortality patients may gain less than higher-mortality patients (1.4 vs. 2.3 months), their positions reverse by 15 years (16.0 vs. 13.7 months). CONCLUSIONS: Lifespan gain from biventricular pacing rises nonlinearly with time. Early on, higher-risk patients exhibit more gain, but later, lower-risk patients exhibit more gain. Quantifying gain over less than a patient’s lifetime underestimates lifespan gain. Over the first 1 or 2 years, lower-risk patients may seem to gain less, although they may ultimately be the ones who gain the most.