Determinants of Progression to AIDS and Death Following HIV Diagnosis: A Retrospective Cohort Study in Wuhan, China

OBJECTIVE: To identify determinants associated with disease progression and death following human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis. METHODS: Disease progression data from the diagnosis of HIV infection or acquiring immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) to February 29, 2012 were retrospectively collected from the national surveillance system databases and the national treatment database in Wuhan, China. Kaplan-Meier method, Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards model were applied to identify the related factors of progression to AIDS or death following HIV diagnosis. RESULTS: By the end of February 2012, 181 of 691 HIV infectors developed to AIDS, and 129 of 470 AIDS patients died among whom 289 cases received concurrent HIV/AIDS diagnosis. Compared with men infected through homosexual behavior, injection drug users possessed sharply decreased hazard ratio (HR) for progression to AIDS following HIV diagnosis [HR = 0.31, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.18–0.54, P = 4.01×10(−5)]. HIV infectors at least 60 years presented 1.15-fold (HR = 2.15, 95% CI, 1.15–4.03, P = 0.017) increased risk to develop AIDS when compared with those aged 17–29 years. Similarly, AIDS patients with diagnosis ages between 50 and 59 years were at a 1.60-fold higher risk of death (HR = 2.60, 95% CI, 1.18–5.72, P = 0.017) compared to those aged 19–29 years. AIDS patients with more CD4(+) T-cells within 6 months at diagnosis (cell/µL) presented lower risk of death (HR = 0.29 for 50- vs <50, 95% CI, 0.15–0.59, P = 0.001). The highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) delayed progression to AIDS from HIV diagnosis (HR = 0.15, 95% CI, 0.07–0.34, P = 6.46×10(−6)) and reduced the risk of death after AIDS diagnosis (HR = 0.02, 95% CI, 0.01–0.04, P = 7.25×10(−25)). CONCLUSIONS: Progression to AIDS and death following HIV diagnosis differed in age at diagnosis, transmission categories, CD4(+) T-cell counts and HAART. Effective interventions should target those at higher risk for morbidity or mortality, ensuring early diagnosis and timely treatment to slow down the disease progression.