The Temporal Trend of Influenza-Associated Morbidity and the Impact of Early Appearance of Antigenic Drifted Strains in a Southeast Asian Country

Globally, influenza infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the elderly, who are suggested to be the major target group for trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) vaccination by World Health Organization. In spite of an increasing trend in vaccine coverage rates in many countries, the effect of vaccination among the elderly in reducing hospitalization and mortality remains controversial. In this study, we conducted a historical cohort study to evaluate the temporal pattern of influenza-associated morbidity among persons older than 64 years over a decade. The temporal patterns of influenza-associated morbidity rates among the elderly older than 64 years indicated that Taiwan's elderly P&I outpatient visits have been decreasing since the beginning of the 1999–2000 influenza season; however, hospitalization has been increasing despite significant increases in vaccine coverage. The propensity score logistic regression model was implemented to evaluate the source of bias and it was found that the TIV-receiving group had a higher propensity score than the non-receiving group (P<0.0001). In order to investigate the major factors affecting the temporal pattern of influenza-associated morbidity, we then used the propensity score as a summary confounder in a multivariate Poisson regression model based on the trimmed data. Our final models suggested that the factors affected the temporal pattern of morbidity differently. The variables including co-morbidity, vaccination rate, influenza virus type A and B isolation rate were associated with increased outpatient visits and hospitalization (p<0.05). In contrast, variables including high propensity score, increased 1°C in temperature, matching vaccine strains of type A/H1N1 and type B were associated with decreased outpatient visits and hospitalization (p<0.05). Finally, we assessed the impact of early appearance of antigenic-drifted strains and concluded that an excess influenza-associated morbidity substantial trends toward higher P&I hospitalization, but not outpatient visits, during the influenza season with early appearance of antigenic-drifted strains.