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Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocea...

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Autores principales: Meier, H. E. Markus, Andersson, Helén C., Arheimer, Berit, Donnelly, Chantal, Eilola, Kari, Gustafsson, Bo G., Kotwicki, Lech, Neset, Tina-Simone, Niiranen, Susa, Piwowarczyk, Joanna, Savchuk, Oleg P., Schenk, Frederik, Węsławski, Jan Marcin, Zorita, Eduardo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3888662/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24414803
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0475-6
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author Meier, H. E. Markus
Andersson, Helén C.
Arheimer, Berit
Donnelly, Chantal
Eilola, Kari
Gustafsson, Bo G.
Kotwicki, Lech
Neset, Tina-Simone
Niiranen, Susa
Piwowarczyk, Joanna
Savchuk, Oleg P.
Schenk, Frederik
Węsławski, Jan Marcin
Zorita, Eduardo
author_facet Meier, H. E. Markus
Andersson, Helén C.
Arheimer, Berit
Donnelly, Chantal
Eilola, Kari
Gustafsson, Bo G.
Kotwicki, Lech
Neset, Tina-Simone
Niiranen, Susa
Piwowarczyk, Joanna
Savchuk, Oleg P.
Schenk, Frederik
Węsławski, Jan Marcin
Zorita, Eduardo
author_sort Meier, H. E. Markus
collection PubMed
description We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.
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spelling pubmed-38886622014-01-14 Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management Meier, H. E. Markus Andersson, Helén C. Arheimer, Berit Donnelly, Chantal Eilola, Kari Gustafsson, Bo G. Kotwicki, Lech Neset, Tina-Simone Niiranen, Susa Piwowarczyk, Joanna Savchuk, Oleg P. Schenk, Frederik Węsławski, Jan Marcin Zorita, Eduardo Ambio Article We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission. Springer Netherlands 2014-01-12 2014-02 /pmc/articles/PMC3888662/ /pubmed/24414803 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0475-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2013 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.
spellingShingle Article
Meier, H. E. Markus
Andersson, Helén C.
Arheimer, Berit
Donnelly, Chantal
Eilola, Kari
Gustafsson, Bo G.
Kotwicki, Lech
Neset, Tina-Simone
Niiranen, Susa
Piwowarczyk, Joanna
Savchuk, Oleg P.
Schenk, Frederik
Węsławski, Jan Marcin
Zorita, Eduardo
Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management
title Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management
title_full Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management
title_fullStr Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management
title_full_unstemmed Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management
title_short Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management
title_sort ensemble modeling of the baltic sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3888662/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24414803
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0475-6
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