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Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)
We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea we...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Netherlands
2014
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3888663/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24414807 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0479-2 |
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author | Lindegarth, Mats Bergström, Ulf Mattila, Johanna Olenin, Sergej Ollikainen, Markku Downie, Anna-Leena Sundblad, Göran Bučas, Martynas Gullström, Martin Snickars, Martin von Numers, Mikael Svensson, J. Robin Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa |
author_facet | Lindegarth, Mats Bergström, Ulf Mattila, Johanna Olenin, Sergej Ollikainen, Markku Downie, Anna-Leena Sundblad, Göran Bučas, Martynas Gullström, Martin Snickars, Martin von Numers, Mikael Svensson, J. Robin Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa |
author_sort | Lindegarth, Mats |
collection | PubMed |
description | We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3888663 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | Springer Netherlands |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-38886632014-01-14 Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB) Lindegarth, Mats Bergström, Ulf Mattila, Johanna Olenin, Sergej Ollikainen, Markku Downie, Anna-Leena Sundblad, Göran Bučas, Martynas Gullström, Martin Snickars, Martin von Numers, Mikael Svensson, J. Robin Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa Ambio Article We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea. Springer Netherlands 2014-01-12 2014-02 /pmc/articles/PMC3888663/ /pubmed/24414807 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0479-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2013 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Article Lindegarth, Mats Bergström, Ulf Mattila, Johanna Olenin, Sergej Ollikainen, Markku Downie, Anna-Leena Sundblad, Göran Bučas, Martynas Gullström, Martin Snickars, Martin von Numers, Mikael Svensson, J. Robin Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB) |
title | Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB) |
title_full | Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB) |
title_fullStr | Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB) |
title_full_unstemmed | Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB) |
title_short | Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB) |
title_sort | testing the potential for predictive modeling and mapping and extending its use as a tool for evaluating management scenarios and economic valuation in the baltic sea (prehab) |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3888663/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24414807 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0479-2 |
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