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Prediction of Mortality Using On-Line, Self-Reported Health Data: Empirical Test of the Realage Score

OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called “RealAge” assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of firs...

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Autores principales: Hobbs, William R., Fowler, James H.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3895041/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24466068
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086385
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author Hobbs, William R.
Fowler, James H.
author_facet Hobbs, William R.
Fowler, James H.
author_sort Hobbs, William R.
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called “RealAge” assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD) in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: The RealAge score is accurately scaled (hazard ratios: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084) and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847) in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814), perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820). CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.
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spelling pubmed-38950412014-01-24 Prediction of Mortality Using On-Line, Self-Reported Health Data: Empirical Test of the Realage Score Hobbs, William R. Fowler, James H. PLoS One Research Article OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called “RealAge” assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD) in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: The RealAge score is accurately scaled (hazard ratios: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084) and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847) in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814), perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820). CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population. Public Library of Science 2014-01-17 /pmc/articles/PMC3895041/ /pubmed/24466068 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086385 Text en © 2014 Hobbs, Fowler http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Hobbs, William R.
Fowler, James H.
Prediction of Mortality Using On-Line, Self-Reported Health Data: Empirical Test of the Realage Score
title Prediction of Mortality Using On-Line, Self-Reported Health Data: Empirical Test of the Realage Score
title_full Prediction of Mortality Using On-Line, Self-Reported Health Data: Empirical Test of the Realage Score
title_fullStr Prediction of Mortality Using On-Line, Self-Reported Health Data: Empirical Test of the Realage Score
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of Mortality Using On-Line, Self-Reported Health Data: Empirical Test of the Realage Score
title_short Prediction of Mortality Using On-Line, Self-Reported Health Data: Empirical Test of the Realage Score
title_sort prediction of mortality using on-line, self-reported health data: empirical test of the realage score
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3895041/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24466068
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086385
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